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Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Increasing chance of precipitation to start the week…

The upper high that has had a grip on the Southern Plains of late, will weaken some through Wednesday, as a trough swings eastward across the Central Plains and Midwest.  In the wake of the trough, a low amplitude ridge will be in place across the Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday.  There will be weak short wave troughs embedded in the westerly flow that will aid in daily thunderstorm development.

The surface map this Sunday evening shows a cold front which is moving south, extending from northwest Minnesota to eastern Wyoming.  A surface trough intersects the front over the Dakotas, and this trough extends south, reaching to the New Mexico/Texas border.  Radar shows a large thunderstorm complex over western Kansas, and other storms across central and eastern Kansas.  The southern extent of this activity extends into the Oklahoma Panhandle.

The current thunderstorms will generate an outflow boundary that is expected to reach northwest and north central Oklahoma by Monday morning.  This boundary will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours.  By evening, storms will push slowly southward into central Oklahoma.  Thunderstorms may very well continue through the overnight hours into Tuesday morning, aided by lift from a passing upper wave.

By Tuesday morning, the cold front will begin to cross the Kansas/Oklahoma border.  This front will increase the chance of more showers and thunderstorms.  The front is expected to become nearly stationary along or south of the I-44 corridor by late on Tuesday.  While the cold front may not actually make it to the Red River, outflow boundaries from thunderstorm complexes could, and this would extend the risk of precipitation into southern Oklahoma late on Tuesday and early Wednesday.

The front is expected to begin lifting northward on Wednesday.  While widespread precipitation is not expected, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

South of fronts and outflow boundaries, temperatures will be quite warm.  Once effective boundaries pass an area, temperatures will cool to below average.

…Hazards…

Across central and eastern Oklahoma / ahead of the front or thunderstorms / the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to heat index readings at or above 105 degrees.

Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible across central and northern Oklahoma on Monday and Tuesday.

Excessive rainfall is possible across the northern half of the state from Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening.  Some areas could see 3 to 5 inches of rainfall and flash flooding could become an issue.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 75
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Monday: 99 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday morning: 71 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Tuesday: 86 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Wednesday morning: 69 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 95 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 90%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 10%

Rainfall… where do we stand?

It’s been a wet year in Okarche.  As of July 18th, the total precipitation has been 26.83 inches.  This is 6.19 inches above average.  More rain is in the forecast to start the upcoming week.
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But for as wet as it’s been here, it pales in comparison with observations south and east of Oklahoma City.  One CoCoRaHS site in Bryan County has seen over 60 inches of rainfall!  There are 13 mesonet sites which have seen at least 50 inches of rainfall so far this year.  The leader is the mesonet site at Tishomingo where 56.6 inches of rainfall has fallen.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Warm and muggy / Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms…

An upper high over eastern Texas this Wednesday evening will remain nearly stationary just southeast of Oklahoma through the weekend.  A strong upper trough over British Columbia will swing southeastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.  While the direct effects of this trough will stay north of Oklahoma, the high and trough locations will result in moderately strong mid level flow spreading from Colorado and New Mexico to the Central Plains.

A surface trough will extend north/south across the Panhandle from Thursday through Saturday.  On Sunday, a weak cold front will be dropping south across the northwest half of the state.  These features will provide a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The best chance of precipitation each day will be northwest of a line from Elk City to Watonga to Bartlesville, but chances will generally be less than 30 percent.

Temperatures will be warm, but not that far above seasonal average.

…Hazards…

Isolated occurrences of hail or damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

Heat index temperatures will reach and exceed 105 degrees across central and eastern Oklahoma through the weekend.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 73

Thursday: 97

Friday morning: 74

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Saturday morning: 75

Saturday: 99

Sunday morning: 76

Sunday: 100

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Hot start to the week…

A strong upper high located near the southwest part of Oklahoma will weaken slightly and shift toward the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of the week.  As this occurs, weak to moderate southwest flow will begin to spread across the state, with the strongest flow expected to be over the Panhandle.

Daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma through Wednesday.  The chances of precipitation at any one location won’t be that high, and no significant rainfall is expected.  The remainder of the state will stay dry and hot.

Temperatures across central Oklahoma have been about 3 to 5 degrees below what can typically be expected for the current weather pattern.  This is likely due to the wet spring and early summer, and vegetation much greener than normal.  This will likely be the case during the days ahead, and we may still be looking at a couple of weeks before vegetation begins to dry out significantly – that is assuming no rainfall occurs.  Unfortunately, the wet ground and green vegetation leads to higher humidity and heat index temperatures will become uncomfortable each day.

…Hazards…

Heat index temperatures are likely to reach or exceed 105 degrees across portions of central and eastern Oklahoma through Wednesday.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 74

Monday: 99

Tuesday morning: 75

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Wednesday morning: 73

Wednesday: 96

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…More rainfall, followed by a return to hot weather…

A weak upper wave will be moving eastward across the central and southern Plains on Thursday.  An upper low near the California coast will weaken as the weekend approaches, but a seasonably strong jet segment will persist, lifting from southern California and Arizona northeastward toward the northern Plains by Sunday evening.  For the southern Plains, heights will begin to build and a strong upper high will take shape just southwest of Oklahoma by Saturday.

A surface front over southern Oklahoma will lift northward as a warm front on Thursday.  Thereafter, warm/hot southwest winds will be spreading across the state through the weekend.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the state on Thursday.  Precipitation will be ending from south to north through Friday morning.  From Friday afternoon through Sunday, there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma – in the proximity of a surface trough over the High Plains.

The main weather story from Friday through Sunday will be the increase in temperatures.  Combined with high humidity courtesy of recent rainfall, it will become quite uncomfortable during the afternoon hours each day.

…Hazards…

Heavy rainfall on Thursday may result in localized flooding issues where recent heavy rainfall has occurred.

Heat index temperatures on Sunday may approach 105 degrees.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 66 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Thursday: 82 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Friday morning: 72

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Saturday morning: 74

Saturday: 95

Sunday morning: 75

Sunday: 98

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 2%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Flooding rainfall to start the week…

The upper ridge which has been located over the western part of the country will weaken and shift southward through the middle of the week.  An upper low off the California coast will deepen as it shifts eastward.  In general, weak to moderate southwest mid level flow will be spreading from the southwest U.S. across the Plains.  Waves embedded in the flow will assist in the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms starting by Monday afternoon.

A broad fetch of deep, tropical moisture will continue to flow northward into Oklahoma, and precipitable water is expected to reach over 2.25 inches across the state.  A cold front will be passing across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma on Monday, and this front will become nearly stationary along or southeast of the I-44 corridor on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The front, combined with outflow boundaries from previous storms, and weak upper waves passing across the state, will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  There will be sufficient instability for some of the storms to become severe.  Of greater concern, the deep tropical moisture will allow for intense rainfall rates, and flooding/flash flooding will become a problem.

Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of the front on Monday, but otherwise will be below average due to precipitation and cloud cover.

…Hazards…

The atmosphere across the state on Monday will become very unstable.  Sufficient deep layer shear will exist for a few organized severe thunderstorm events across northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle.  Damaging wind will be the primary threat.  Tuesday will see at least a slight chance of a severe thunderstorm across the main body of the state.

Flooding and flash flooding will be possible across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma from Monday afternoon until Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues will also be possible across the main body of the state from daybreak on Tuesday until daybreak on Wednesday.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 74

Monday: 92 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday morning: 69 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
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Tuesday: 82 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Wednesday morning: 66 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 81 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 100%

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Wetter, a little cooler conditions expected through the weekend…

The general weather pattern is expected to be relatively unchanged through the weekend as a quasistationary upper high will be located over the western U.S. and a trough of varying amplitude will be found over the eastern U.S.

Northwest flow will continue across the Plains through Saturday, and then the upper ridge to the west will attempt to build back into the central and southern Plains.

Mid level temperatures across Oklahoma will cool slightly through Saturday, and this will make conditions a bit more favorable for rounds of precipitation.  In turn, precipitation and cloud cover will keep afternoon temperatures in check.

A weak surface front lies across far northwest Oklahoma this Wednesday evening.  This front will provide a focus for a few showers and thunderstorms that may linger into the morning hours of Thursday.  Attention then turns to Kansas where a thunderstorm complex will begin organizing early Thursday afternoon.  This complex of storms is expected to move quickly southeastward across Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening.  The combination of a weak surface front and outflow boundaries, along with waves embedded in northwest flow aloft will result in scattered / to occasionally numerous / showers and thunderstorms statewide Friday and Saturday.  As the upper ridge attempts to build into the state on Sunday, precipitation will diminish, but a stray shower or storm will still be possible.

…Hazards…

The atmosphere across Oklahoma on Thursday will become quite unstable in advance of the Kansas thunderstorm complex.  Storms during the afternoon and evening are likely to become severe with large hail and damaging winds possible.  As instability weakens, the risk of severe weather will diminish some on Friday, and further diminish on Saturday.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 74

Thursday: 94 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday morning: 68 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday: 87 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
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Saturday morning: 70 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 91 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday morning: 72

Sunday: 95

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 80%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 30%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 1%