Southwest Kansas storms – May 28, 2013

We experienced several dry microbursts near Protection, Kansas where we estimated winds easily over 60 mph.  From there, we drove south to near the Kansas/Oklahoma border and came away with some lightning images.  Our close proximity to Dodge City, Kansas made it an easy choice for a place to overnight.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1W0lKmnLpE

Kansas supercells – May 27, 2013

This day started with high expectations.  An extremely unstable atmosphere was in place across Kansas – north of an outflow boundary which took up a northwest to southeast position just south of Salina.  A strong dryline worked through the southwest part of Kansas and low level moisture was flowing westward north of the dryline.  Aloft, moderate to strong mid-level westerly winds were blowing across the northern half of the state.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1W0lKmnLpE

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Upper: A strong storm system is moving eastward through Montana/Wyoming this morning.  As this system moves over the Northern Plains, moderately strong westerly mid-level flow will be spreading across the Central Plains, and northern sections of the Southern Plains.  By Wednesday evening, the weakening system will be moving through the Great Lakes with moderate northwest flow trailing it across Oklahoma.

Surface: Low pressure has organized over E Colorado.  Increasing south winds are found across much of the Plains.  The surface low will propagate southward over the next 48 hours to WC Texas.  This will allow a cold front to enter NW Oklahoma by Wednesday morning.  The front will have pushed through most all of the state by Thursday morning.

Impacts: Increasing south winds will result in a steady increase in low-level moisture through the period.  Subtle lifting associated with an approaching short wave trough, combined with afternoon heating and low level convergence along a dryline, will result in thunderstorms forming Monday afternoon over the Panhandle.  These storms will pose a threat of severe weather by evening as they move into W Oklahoma.  Storms may continue through the night into central sections of the state.  By late Tuesday, more showers and thunderstorms are expected to form in NW Oklahoma and spread southeastward across the state.  Favorable wind shear combined with a very moist and unstable atmosphere will result in severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.  A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.  More showers and thunderstorms are expected statewide on Wednesday before coming to an end Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 55

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Tuesday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms

Tuesday: 86 / Showers and thunderstorms

Wednesday morning: 63 / Showers and thunderstorms

Wednesday: 77 / Showers and thunderstorms

Storm Chasing Tragedy

To be honest, there are some real idiots out there chasing storms.  The amount of inexperience and lack of respect for storms is scary.  Many also have a strong desire to get the “money shot” – risking life and limb for that ten seconds of footage that will get their name splattered all over the Tee Vee.  Over the last several years, watching videos from this breed of storm chaser making all kinds of reckless moves has left me with my jaw hanging.  Most storm chasers knew that it was only a matter of time before a big tornado took the life of one of these idiots.  Needless to say, I wasn’t surprised to hear that three storm chasers were killed by the tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma on 31 May.

What was surprising was who it was.  Long time severe storm researchers/chasers Tim Samaras, his 24 year old son Paul, and Carl Young.  I’m not going to go over the top on how much I knew these guys.  It irks me when someone dies and suddenly everyone knew them, was their best friend, and exchanged Christmas cards.  I never met Paul, and only shook hands with Carl once.  Tim was interested in my video of the Manchester, South Dakota tornado of 2003 and I got him a copy and talked with him a few times about the event.  He was kind enough to let me in on early findings from his data collected at Manchester.  My few conversations with Tim left me believing that he was a good egg.  Through the years, I never heard anyone say a bad thing about him, and his presentations on various television programs were very professional and informative.  He represented the storm chase community as good as anyone I have ever seen, and will be missed.

The details on what went wrong for Tim and his team are unclear.  His research frequently put him in front of tornadoes, but he did it with the safety of his crew in mind.  He always had an out.  So what happened?  Maybe someday we will find out as more information becomes available.  Given the location of where they were hit by the tornado, it is entirely possible that they misjudged the forward speed, direction, intensity, or all three – when just one could make for a fatal mistake.
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I have seen very large and violent tornadoes make some abrupt changes in their paths this year.  The fact that Tim Samaras could get caught has me re-thinking how much room to give large tornadoes and the overall way to attack storms that produce them.

I can’t begin to imagine what their families are going through.  Saying that they died doing something they love in an effort to make things seem better is a load of crap.  I once heard someone say they loved eating ice cream, but they don’t want to die doing it.  Dead is dead, dead is bad, and this is real bad.  With time, I hope the families are able to celebrate the lives of these men, and carry on the way Tim, Paul, and Carl would want them to.  Rest in peace my fellows…