Local and National records set (May 2 and 3)

Much of Central and Western Oklahoma experienced another freeze this morning (May 3).  In Okarche, the temperature dropped to 32 degrees which broke the previous record of 38 degrees set in 2008.  Also, this becomes the latest freeze of record and the coldest May temperature ever.

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Across the Midwest, some record low high temperatures were set, but the bigger story was the high precipitation amounts and record snowfall.  Some areas saw as much as 18 inches of snow.  In Rochester, Minnesota, a staggering 14 inches of snow broke the old record for any day in May – the previous record was 1.2 inches set back in 1944.

National Records Set May 1, 2013

On May 1st, record breaking cold was confined to Montana, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon where records for low temperature and low high temperatures were set.  There were three all time May record lows set in Montana.

Record high low temperatures were set in California, Arizona, and Illinois.  Record highs were set in Michigan.

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Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Upper: Model data is a bit scattered / and has been for the past 48 hours / with regard to the system which is currently affecting the Plains.  The slower solution of the GFS is being followed, but differences between the GFS and ECMWF are significant enough to limit confidence in a forecast.

In general, a strong and sharp trough over the Rockies will evolve into a closed low as it tracks into Oklahoma late Thursday.  The system is expected to slow its eastward progression, and be in Arkansas Saturday afternoon.  From there, the low is expected to wobble eastward into Tennessee by the end of the weekend.

Surface: This evening, a strong cold front has pushed through Western and Central Oklahoma and extends from near Tulsa to near Ardmore.  Very cold air and strong north winds are found behind the front, with freezing temperatures in the western part of the Panhandle.  Winds which are currently gusting out of the north at speeds of 35 to 50 mph will continue to be quite brisk on Thursday as high pressure moves southward through the Central and Southern High Plains.  It will be quite cold over all of the state Friday morning.  The air mass will begin to modify by Friday afternoon, but temperatures are likely to remain at or below normal through the weekend.

Impacts:

…Damaging cold is possible across Northwest Oklahoma by Thursday morning… …Damaging cold is possible across all of the state except the southeast Friday morning… …North winds gusting to between 35 and 45 mph will be possible across the state through Thursday… …Sleet and snow are expected across the northern half of the state – with accumulating snow near the Kansas border…

Lifting associated with the approaching upper trough will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday morning.  By afternoon, a large swath of precipitation from Central Kansas to Northwest Oklahoma will be advancing eastward.  Forecast soundings suggest that this may be mostly snow near the Kansas border.  Also, a mix of rain, sleet and snow is likely across the northern half of the state.  The precipitation will be winding down over Eastern Oklahoma during the early morning hours of Friday.  Shower / snow shower / activity is expected to begin wrapping around the upper low and move back into Central and Northern Oklahoma Friday afternoon.  This scattered activity will likely persist through most of the weekend.

This cold spell is likely to set numerous records in Oklahoma and other places across the Plains.  There will be record low temperatures, record low high temperatures, monthly records, and snowfall records broken before it is over.  The blog will be updated frequently over the next several days summarizing record events.

Okarche weather:

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Thursday: 39 / Rain and snow

Friday morning: 29

Friday: 56 / Showers

Saturday morning: 35

Saturday: 58

Sunday morning: 42

Sunday: 63