Category Archives: Weather Outlook for Okarche, Oklahoma

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Strong northwest flow aloft extends from Southwestern Canada to the Central Plains this evening. Northwest flow continues to a trough of low pressure which extends from Eastern Pennsylvania to Central Texas.  A very strong jet segment will move over the Northern Rockies by daybreak on Thursday, with continued strong northerly flow re-establishing a large trough over the central and eastern part of the country by Friday.  This trough will swing toward the East Coast on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Rockies.  The pattern will remain progressive with another storm system moving in over the northwest while the upper ridge shifts over the Plains late Saturday and Sunday.

A cold front will be moving south across the state Thursday.  After a low in the mid 20’s, the temperature in Okarche should make it to the low or mid 50’s before cooler air settles in and clouds increase by early evening.  The low Friday morning will drop to the mid 20’s.

There will be some sunshine on Friday and temperatures will climb into the low 40’s.  A mid-level vort max embedded in strong northerly flow will approach the state Friday night and Saturday morning.  This will result in an increase in cloud cover with a slight chance of light snow.  No accumulation is expected as the atmosphere will be quite dry.  The temperature Saturday morning will drop into the low to mid 20’s.

Saturday will see sunny skies with a return to southwest winds as the core of the cold surface air shifts into the eastern part of the U.S.  The high temperature will reach the upper 40’s.

The low Sunday morning will once again drop into the upper 20’s.  However, temperatures should rebound nicely with a high near 60 degrees.  There will be a slight increase in cloud cover with winds becoming gusty from the southwest as pressures fall over the High Plains.

Thursday morning: 26

Thursday: 53
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Friday morning: 24

Friday: 44

Saturday morning: 22 / Flurries

Saturday: 49

Sunday morning: 27

Sunday: 59

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

A strong mid-level jet segment will continue to work into the base of the Western U.S. trough, resulting in a low/vorticity center becoming organized over the Four Corners/Arizona by Monday evening.  A surface high pressure ridge will extend from the Central Plains to the Southeast U.S. resulting in light easterly winds across Oklahoma with a high reaching 55 degrees in Okarche.  Skies during the day Monday will become increasingly cloudy as evening approaches.  The low temperature by Tuesday morning will drop to around 33 degrees.

The increase in cloud cover Monday night will be a result of the Southwestern U.S. system approaching the Southern Plains.  This system will generally move straight east across the state, reaching Eastern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. Strong lifting and ample moisture will result in widespread precipitation across Oklahoma, starting at daybreak on Tuesday and continuing throughout the day and evening hours.  The precipitation will be ending over Northeast Oklahoma at daybreak on Wednesday.  A combination of extensive cloud cover and precipitation, a cool easterly surface flow, and a steadily cooling column of air as the upper system moves overhead, will result in a steady temperature around 35 degrees on Tuesday.  The temperature will fall to around 32 degrees by early evening.  Meanwhile, a cold rain will transition to snow by mid-afternoon.  2 to 4 inches of snow is expected in the Okarche area.  A longer duration of snow will result in the highest accumulations of snow in Western Oklahoma with diminishing amounts farther east.  The greatest snowfall totals will range from 4 to 6 inches.  As the system moves by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, surface winds will become gusty out of the north.  The low temperature in Okarche will drop to 27 degrees.

Where snow cover exists on Wednesday, the high temperature is not likely to get out of the 30’s. Meanwhile, portions of Southern and Eastern Oklahoma will see highs reach into 50’s.  For Okarche, with the idea that there will be snow cover, the high should be around 39 degrees.  Skies will be mostly sunny in the wake of the storm system with mostly light northwest winds.
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The weather Wednesday night will be interesting as temperatures and possible fog/low clouds will vary greatly depending on remaining snow cover.  Again, with Okarche expected to be in this area of snow cover, it appears that fog and a low of 28 degrees is possible.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

The upper-level flow across the U.S. this afternoon is generally zonal with numerous embedded short wave troughs.  One trough is currently moving through southeast Oklahoma and eastern Texas.  This combined with an increase in low level moisture over the past 24 hours has resulted in shower and thunderstorm activity.  In Oklahoma, the activity has been fairly scattered with only a few areas receiving brief heavy showers.

A second trough is moving southeast through Montana, with a third moving eastward through Utah and Arizona.  These will advance eastward over the next 24 hours eventually phasing over the Plains and Mississippi Valley during the day Thursday.  This will help push a cold front into Oklahoma during the early morning hours.  Showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of the front, with the strongest lifting / and higher coverage of precipitation / occurring across north central and northeast Oklahoma.  It now appears that the onset of precipitation will be delayed beyond previous thinking and that showers and storms will be ongoing in eastern Oklahoma well into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will only peak in the mid 50’s on Thursday and winds will become gusty out of the north behind the front.  The temperature will drop to near or just below freezing Thursday night.

Behind the Thursday system, a high pressure ridge aloft will work eastward over the Plains while a strong storm system moves onshore over the west coast.  With mostly sunny skies, temperatures Friday will push to near 60 degrees as winds gradually become southeasterly.  By late afternoon, winds will be gusting out of the south across the panhandle and extreme northwest.  The low Friday night will be well above normal, in the upper 30’s.

24-48 hours ago, models were having a hard time coming up with similar solutions for the western U.S. system.  The various models have come more in agreement over the past 24 hours and it now appears that a significant lead wave will eject out of the west on Saturday, reaching the central Plains by Sunday morning.  As this occurs, a deep area of surface low pressure will take shape in eastern Colorado.  With south winds, temperatures on Saturday will reach near 60 degrees (possibly warmer depending on the amount of cloud cover).  The surface low will advance toward south central Nebraska during the overnight hours from Saturday into Sunday, while a cold front will start pushing eastward through Oklahoma.  Low temperatures in central Oklahoma Saturday night are tricky to forecast.  If the front passes between 3 am and 6 am, there may be a brief period where temperatures drop into the 30’s.  Should frontal passage hold off until after sunrise, temperatures will only drop into the 40’s.
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Strong lifting across Nebraska and adjacent areas of South Dakota will result in a significant snow event with near blizzard conditions on the northwest side of the surface low.  A second area of large scale lift will be overspreading the warm sector in Oklahoma and Texas.  Showers and thunderstorms will form along the front with the greatest chance of precipitation in central Oklahoma coming between Midnight and 6 am on Sunday.  A few severe thunderstorms appear possible in Texas and southern Oklahoma during the early morning hours of Sunday.  This threat will shift eastward into Arkansas and Louisiana by Sunday afternoon.

The pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front will not be that strong and winds Sunday will steadily weaken throughout the day.  Temperatures should once again push to near 60 degrees.

Beyond the Thursday to Sunday period, things have taken a turn toward the interesting with a possible winter storm shaping up toward the start of next week.  Once again, model agreement has boosted confidence and while attention is focused on the ejecting lead wave on Sunday, a strong speed max will be dropping south through the western U.S. into the base of the trough. This will help carve out a strong system that will approach the southern Plains by Tuesday.  There should be a good supply of moisture to generate widespread precipitation with this system. Meanwhile, the column of air looks sufficiently cold for snow production / especially north of I-40.  While there is plenty of time for things to change, current indications are that significant amounts of snowfall could occur in the state from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Models continue to be in relatively good agreement with key weather features over the next several days.  A pattern of northwest flow aloft across the U.S. will gradually shift more zonal as weak troughs move through the West.  One weak system will move across the Red River Valley area early Monday.  This will generate mostly weak showers beginning tonight in central and south central Oklahoma… spreading to the Arkansas border by late morning Monday.  Low temperatures tonight will be well above normal / only dropping into the low 40’s / before reaching well into the 50’s on Monday.  A front will pass by late Monday morning shifting the winds to the north.  Behind this front, temperatures will be able to drop to below freezing Monday night.  That should be it for freezing temperatures for the remainder of the week. 

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be above to much above normal with highs reaching the mid 60’s on Wednesday. 
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South winds with increasing low level moisture will be seen across the state on Wednesday as another disturbance approaches from the southwest U.S.  A few showers will be possible during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday morning.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Generally quiet weather has returned to the state and that will remain the case through the upcoming weekend.

A deep upper level trough of low pressure over the Mississippi Valley will shift eastward and high pressure will build into the western U.S. over the next several days. Northwesterly flow aloft diving from southern Canada into the eastern U.S. trough will allow several shots of cold air to spread southeast, but these should lead to only glancing blows to Oklahoma.

It will be cool tonight in Oklahoma as temperatures drop into the 20’s, but that is near normal for January 31st.  We will make a run up into the 50’s on Thursday before an afternoon cold front shifts winds to the northeast and puts a halt on our warmup.  Thursday night should see the coldest temperatures of the next few days with a low around 20 degrees expected in Okarche.
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Winds will become southerly on Friday before yet another front slides through by Saturday morning.  The air behind this front doesn’t look as cold, and overnight lows will be near normal through the weekend with afternoon highs reaching as much as 10 degrees above normal.

The atmosphere will remain dry, and except for a slight chance of showers in southeast Oklahoma on Saturday, no precipitation is expected.