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SEVERECAST DAY 28 – MIDNIGHT, SUNDAY, MARCH 28

…NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY IN OKLAHOMA…

UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO TEXAS WILL SWING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY… WHILE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF STORMS NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER THE 1ST OF APRIL.

ON THIS DATE IN 1924… NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INFLICTED DAMAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.  SHAWNEE WAS HIT BY A TORNADO THAT WAS REPORTED TO BE TWO BLOCKS WIDE.  200 HOMES WERE DESTROYED AND AT LEAST EIGHT PEOPLE WERE KILLED.

SEVERECAST DAY 27 – MIDNIGHT, SATURDAY, MARCH 27

…ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON…

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD NEAR THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOO FAR SOUTH BY THE 00Z NAM AND THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH ITS LOCATION.  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO/MISSISIPPI RIVERS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE WEATHER MAP IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THIS STORM IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK – IF IT HAD MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THE WARM SECTOR ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY IN OKLAHOMA.

IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION – GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT – THAT STORMS FORMING NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF SEVERE REPORTS BEFORE THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES INTO ARKANSAS/MISSOURI.  A WEAK… SHORT-LIVED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THESE SEVERE EVENTS WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.  AT THIS TIME… THE DEGREE OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOKED AREA.

ON THIS DATE IN 1975… A 3:30 A.M. TORNADO HIT NEAR ELK CITY.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS CONFINED TO A MOBILE HOME.  “A COUPLE WAS IN BED WHEN THE WHIRLWIND STRUCK WITHOUT WARNING, LIFTING THE HOME FROM ITS FOUNDATION AND TOSSING THE COUPLE INTO THE MUD OUTSIDE.”

SEVERECAST DAY 26 – MIDNIGHT, FRIDAY, MARCH 26

…WARM, WINDY BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE STATE TODAY…

IT SEEMS LIKE THE TERM “STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM” HAS BEEN USED A LOT THIS YEAR…BUT – ONCE AGAIN… A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA.  THIS STORM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STORM WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS INCREASING FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THIS PERIOD.

WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED… WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE PANHANDLE AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS.  LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

ON THIS DATE IN 1949… A TORNADO STRUCK CROWDER (ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCALESTER) JUST BEFORE 4 A.M.   ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE TOWN WAS DESTROYED AND TWO PEOPLE WERE KILLED.

SEVERECAST DAY 25 – MIDNIGHT, THURSDAY, MARCH 25

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY…

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM MOVES ONSHORE WEST COAST.

COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OUT OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AND A COOLER MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

ON THIS DATE IN 1948… WHILE THE MAIN STORY WAS A TORNADO HITTING TINKER FIELD FOR THE SECOND TIME IN LESS THAN A WEEK… THERE WERE SEVERAL OTHER TORNADOES THAT PRODUCED A VARIETY OF DAMAGE AND FATALITIES.  NEAR WETUMKA… A TORNADO BLEW A BARN INTO A HOUSE WHERE A FAMILY OF FIVE WAS TAKING SHELTER.  A STOVE WAS OVERTURNED AND THE HOUSE CAUGHT FIRE.  TRAPPED FROM THE DAMAGE OF THE TORNADO… ALL FIVE PERISHED.

SEVERECAST DAY 24 – 10:34 A.M., WEDNESDAY, MARCH 24

…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW LOOK POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON…

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL BE SPREADING INCREASING FLOW ALOFT/UPWARD MOTION EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST KINGFISHER COUNTY.  A FRONT EXTENDS NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THERE TO WESTERN KAY COUNTY… AND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN CANADIAN/EASTERN GRADY AND EASTERN COTTON COUNTY.  THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD – MOVING THROUGH SEVERAL ROWS OF COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING.  THERE ARE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER.  MORNING SOUNDINGS IN TEXAS SUGGEST A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS FLOWING NORTHWARD.  MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1+ INCH PRECIP WATER VALUE HAS REACHED THE KANSAS BORDER.  THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL TRENDS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TODAY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND A SEVERE THREAT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING SHEAR.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SURFACE HEATING ARE OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER – AND THUS, THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE AT HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT.  THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE NON-ZERO.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

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SEVERECAST DAY 24 – MIDNIGHT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 24

…A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY – SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED…

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA – TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON – AND FINALLY INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM… INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

AT THE SURFACE… A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH STEADILY EASTWARD REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY THE START OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE SOME OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS – HOWEVER, AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

ON THIS DATE IN 1954… A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AFFECTED OKLAHOMA.  ONE OF THE SEVERAL TORNADOES FORMED FOUR MILES EAST OF ALFALFA IN CADDO COUNTY WHERE IT DESTROYED A FARM HOUSE.  THE OCCUPANT SAID SHE SAW BOTH A HORSE AND THE FAMILY CAR TOSSED SOME 25 FEET INTO THE AIR THEN FALL BACK TO THE EARTH IN AN UPRIGHT POSITION.  SHE TOLD A HIGHWAY PATROLMAN THE KICKING HORSE WAS SUSPENDED IN THE AIR FOR “A SECOND OR TWO,” THEN LANDED ON HIS FEET AND KEPT RUNNING.

SEVERECAST DAY 23 – MIDNIGHT, TUESDAY, MARCH 23

…LATE PERIOD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA – BUT SEVERE THREAT NOT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY…

YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  EVENING MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORM WILL MOVE FROM UTAH/NEVADA INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.

AT THE SURFACE… A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLE AT SUNRISE TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MOST OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.  THERE ARE MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE BY THAT TIME – HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

ON THIS DATE IN 1987… IT WAS A VERY SPOTTY AND STRANGE DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OKLAHOMA.  JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT… THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  TWO F1 TORNADOES FORMED IN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA – BETWEEN 7 AND 8 A.M.  PAYNE COUNTY SAW LARGE HAIL JUST AFTER 5 P.M.

SEVERECAST DAY 22 – MIDNIGHT, MONDAY, MARCH 22

…NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN OKLAHOMA MONDAY…

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SPRING LEVELS… THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE.

ON THIS DATE IN 1946… A TORNADO IN OSAGE COUNTY PASSED JUST SOUTHEAST OF WYNONA.  THE 800 YARD WIDE TORNADO DESTROYED A POWER PLANT AND 15 HOMES.  A 500 POUND PIECE OF MACHINERY WAS REPORTEDLY CARRIED FOR A HALF MILE.  THERE WERE NO INJURIES.

2009/2010 Snow Season…

We were almost able to watch the sunrise in Okarche this morning – only a band of mid and high clouds along and just above the horizon prevented it.  With sunshine today and tomorrow – our winter storm of yesterday will soon be nothing but a memory.

Okarche received 5.0 inches of snow on the 20th.  This is the most snow – so late in the season – that I have ever recorded here.  Winds gusting to between 35 and 40 m.p.h. caused a considerable amount of drifting with some drifts exceeding three feet.

The storm fell short of its potential… but our total still fell well within our forecast range of 4 to 8 inches by the National Weather Service.

Looking at extended range models… it is doubtful that there will be another accumulating snow in Okarche this season.  Not out of the question… but doubtful.  So – we can start to look at our season total as final.  The 5.0 inches of snow yesterday brought us up to 16.9 inches on the season… a little short of the record.

Top three snow seasons:

1 – 2002/2003 – 19.0 inches
2 – 2009/2010 – 16.9 inches
3 – 2000/2001 – 16.3 inches

One blizzard – one near blizzard – and a couple of other events will make this a season to remember.  For now… let the melting begin!

What should be a last look at snowfall this season at sunrise this morning:

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SEVERECAST DAY 21 – MIDNIGHT, SUNDAY, MARCH 21

…NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY…

A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA BY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM… A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL BE COOL AND STABLE.

ON THIS DATE IN 2005… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED 36 EVENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  EIGHT F0 TORNADOES WERE INCLUDED IN THIS EVENT WITH A COUPLE OCCURRING NEAR OKEMAH.  DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO TREES, POWER LINES AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS.