…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW LOOK POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON…
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL BE SPREADING INCREASING FLOW ALOFT/UPWARD MOTION EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST KINGFISHER COUNTY. A FRONT EXTENDS NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THERE TO WESTERN KAY COUNTY… AND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN CANADIAN/EASTERN GRADY AND EASTERN COTTON COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT STEADILY EASTWARD – MOVING THROUGH SEVERAL ROWS OF COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE MODEL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE RED RIVER AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE RED RIVER. MORNING SOUNDINGS IN TEXAS SUGGEST A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS FLOWING NORTHWARD. MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1+ INCH PRECIP WATER VALUE HAS REACHED THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL TRENDS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TODAY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND A SEVERE THREAT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING SHEAR.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SURFACE HEATING ARE OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER – AND THUS, THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE AT HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE NON-ZERO. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
…A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY – SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED…
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA – TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON – AND FINALLY INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM… INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
AT THE SURFACE… A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH STEADILY EASTWARD REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS BY THE START OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE SOME OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS – HOWEVER, AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
ON THIS DATE IN 1954… A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AFFECTED OKLAHOMA. ONE OF THE SEVERAL TORNADOES FORMED FOUR MILES EAST OF ALFALFA IN CADDO COUNTY WHERE IT DESTROYED A FARM HOUSE. THE OCCUPANT SAID SHE SAW BOTH A HORSE AND THE FAMILY CAR TOSSED SOME 25 FEET INTO THE AIR THEN FALL BACK TO THE EARTH IN AN UPRIGHT POSITION. SHE TOLD A HIGHWAY PATROLMAN THE KICKING HORSE WAS SUSPENDED IN THE AIR FOR “A SECOND OR TWO,” THEN LANDED ON HIS FEET AND KEPT RUNNING.
…LATE PERIOD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA – BUT SEVERE THREAT NOT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY…
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EVENING MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORM WILL MOVE FROM UTAH/NEVADA INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE.
AT THE SURFACE… A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLE AT SUNRISE TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MOST OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE BY THAT TIME – HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.
ON THIS DATE IN 1987… IT WAS A VERY SPOTTY AND STRANGE DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OKLAHOMA. JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT… THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. TWO F1 TORNADOES FORMED IN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA – BETWEEN 7 AND 8 A.M. PAYNE COUNTY SAW LARGE HAIL JUST AFTER 5 P.M.
…NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN OKLAHOMA MONDAY…
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SPRING LEVELS… THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE.
ON THIS DATE IN 1946… A TORNADO IN OSAGE COUNTY PASSED JUST SOUTHEAST OF WYNONA. THE 800 YARD WIDE TORNADO DESTROYED A POWER PLANT AND 15 HOMES. A 500 POUND PIECE OF MACHINERY WAS REPORTEDLY CARRIED FOR A HALF MILE. THERE WERE NO INJURIES.
We were almost able to watch the sunrise in Okarche this morning – only a band of mid and high clouds along and just above the horizon prevented it. With sunshine today and tomorrow – our winter storm of yesterday will soon be nothing but a memory.
Okarche received 5.0 inches of snow on the 20th. This is the most snow – so late in the season – that I have ever recorded here. Winds gusting to between 35 and 40 m.p.h. caused a considerable amount of drifting with some drifts exceeding three feet.
The storm fell short of its potential… but our total still fell well within our forecast range of 4 to 8 inches by the National Weather Service.
Looking at extended range models… it is doubtful that there will be another accumulating snow in Okarche this season. Not out of the question… but doubtful. So – we can start to look at our season total as final. The 5.0 inches of snow yesterday brought us up to 16.9 inches on the season… a little short of the record.
Top three snow seasons:
1 – 2002/2003 – 19.0 inches
2 – 2009/2010 – 16.9 inches
3 – 2000/2001 – 16.3 inches
One blizzard – one near blizzard – and a couple of other events will make this a season to remember. For now… let the melting begin!
What should be a last look at snowfall this season at sunrise this morning:
…NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST IN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY…
A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA BY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM… A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL BE COOL AND STABLE.
ON THIS DATE IN 2005… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED 36 EVENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. EIGHT F0 TORNADOES WERE INCLUDED IN THIS EVENT WITH A COUPLE OCCURRING NEAR OKEMAH. DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO TREES, POWER LINES AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS.
Snowfall in Okarche had reached 4.2 inches by 1 p.m. Since then… moderate snow has started falling and the total is likely pushing 5 inches now. It appears that there will be more snow during the next couple of hours which may add another inch or so.
As of 9:30 a.m. – Okarche has received 3.8 inches of snowfall from the winter storm that is affecting the state. This is the most snowfall – so late in the season – that I have ever recorded before. This brings the season total to 15.7 inches. It looks like a couple more inches of snow may fall today before the precipitation shifts east after sunset.
A rose bush behind the house that was enjoying 70 degree weather yesterday.
…NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED IN OKLAHOMA FOR FIRST DAY OF SPRING…
A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY. THIS STORM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A FEW AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE STATE.
AT THE SURFACE… THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE CLEARING THE STATE BY AROUND NOON.
STRONG LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW OCCURRENCES OF THUNDER – MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE… HOWEVER, HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA IS UNLIKELY.
ON THIS DATE IN 1948… A TORNADO THAT PASSED ACROSS TINKER AIR FORCE BASE CAUSED A RECORD AMOUNT OF DAMAGE FOR OKLAHOMA, TO THAT DATE. 52 LARGE AIRCRAFT, INCLUDING 17 C-54 TRANSPORTS, VALUED AT $500,000 EACH WERE DESTROYED ALONG WITH 15 P-47 FIGHTERS AND TWO B-29 BOMBERS. NO DEATHS OCCURRED AND ONLY EIGHT PEOPLE WERE INJURED BUT DAMAGES EXCEEDED 10 MILLION DOLLARS.
The high in Okarche so far today has been 70 degrees which was reached just after 1 p.m. I know that doesn’t sound like much – but the last time that happened was November 27, 2009. A stretch of 111 days. I’ll be looking at my records but I don’t know if we have ever had to wait so long to see a 70 degree temperature before. Funny that it happens on the last day of winter and the first day of spring will likely see accumulating snow!