SEVERECAST DAY 89 – 7:00 a.m., FRIDAY, MAY 28

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED… 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S…. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST… AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER MISSISSIPPI.  FOR OKLAHOMA… WINDS AT MOST LEVELS WILL BE LIGHT. 

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST OVER THE MAIN BODY OF THE STATE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS – POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO – WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THESE SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1982… THREE TORNADOES STRUCK SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 1 AND 3 A.M.  THE LARGEST TORNADOES OCCURRED NEAR ANTLERS AND NEAR OCTAVIA.  DESPITE IT BEING IN THE “MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT”… NOBODY WAS INJURED OR KILLED.

SEVERECAST DAY 88 – 7:00 a.m., THURSDAY, MAY 27

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED… 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY.  THERE ARE SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL… WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1896… AN EARLY EVENING TORNADO TRACKED FOR ABOUT 10 MILES FROM JUST SOUTH OF SHERIDAN IN NORTHEAST KINGFISHER COUNTY TO FIVE MILES NORTHEAST OF MARSHALL IN GARFIELD COUNTY.  ONE PERSON WAS REPORTED INJURED AND AT LEAST ONE HOME WAS “BLOWN APART AND SCATTERED”.

SEVERECAST DAY 87 – 7:00 a.m., WEDNESDAY, MAY 26

…NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED…

MID LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE WEST. 

THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE IN POCKETS ACROSS THE STATE.  NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA THIS MORNING – MOSTLY DUE TO PREVIOUS CONVECTION.  THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY… BUT THE EXPECTED WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM FORMING. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1962… JUST ONE DAY AFTER A VIOLENT TORNADO STRUCK WESTERN OKLAHOMA… ANOTHER VIOLENT TORNADO MOVED THROUGH COTTON COUNTY.  FOUR FARMS WERE LEVELED TO THE GROUND AND OTHERS WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED NEAR RANDLETT.  AN UNOCCUPIED HOUSE WAS LIFTED AND SET DOWN INTACT, 100 YARDS AWAY.  LATER IN THE EVENING… ANOTHER STRONG TORNADO HIT NEAR GOLDSBY IN MCCLAIN AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES.

SEVERECAST DAY 86 – 7:00 a.m., TUESDAY, MAY 25

…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST… 

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD… HOWEVER… IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE AT PEAK HEATING. 

AT THE SURFACE… STORMS OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AROUND.  STILL, A GENERAL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED FROM THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA – THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS QUITE MOIST AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING… SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  A WEAK CAP COMBINED WITH LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. 

WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY… LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST IS LIKELY TO COMPENSATE… PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELL IN NATURE.  LARGE HAIL… DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  OVERNIGHT… THE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS’S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1962… TWO TORNADOES MOVED THROUGH WASHITA AND CUSTER COUNTIES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE LARGEST TORNADO TRACKED FROM THREE MILES WEST OF DILL CITY INTO THE TOWN AND THEN CONTINUED TO JUST WEST OF CORDELL.  400 TURKEYS WERE KILLED AS THE TORNADO FORMED.  29 HOMES WERE DESTROYED.  NINE PEOPLE WERE INJURED BY WHAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN F4 TORNADO.

052510

SEVERECAST DAY 85 – 7:00 a.m., MONDAY, MAY 24

…SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE PANHANDLE…

A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE CO/UT/ID BORDER THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS… STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FLOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.

AT THE SURFACE… A DRY LINE WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY… RETREATING TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF THE PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. CAPPING SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MAY RETARD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON… HOWEVER… DRY LINE CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS AROUND 6 P.M. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR… THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELL IN NATURE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL… DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

ON THIS DATE IN 1957… TWO LARGE TORNADOES OCCURRED IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ONE TORNADO WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 22 MILES TRACKED FROM EAST OF APHEATONE IN NORTHWEST COTTON COUNTY TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAWTON IN COMANCHE COUNTY. TWO COUPLES WERE KILLED IN HOMES THAT WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED. ANOTHER TORNADO WITH A PATH LENGTH OF ABOUT 48 MILES MOVED THROUGH GARVIN, MCCLAIN AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED JUST SOUTHEAST OF PAULS VALLEY.

052410

SEVERECAST DAY 84 – 7:00 a.m., SUNDAY, MAY 23

…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING… 

A VERY STRONG CHUNK OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SWING NEGATIVELY TILTED OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY.  WITH IT… THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. 

WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OKLAHOMA… SOME INCREASE IN LIFTING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PANHANDLE.  

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE IN COLORADO.  A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO… A DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOUND IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. 

THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE CAP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT… CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE… AFTERNOON HEATING AND A GRAZING AMOUNT OF LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS. 

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY… LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1903… SEVERAL LARGE TORNADOES OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THREE OF THE TORNADOES WERE KILLERS.  ONE OF THE LARGEST TORNADOES MOVED THROUGH PORTIONS OF ROGER MILLS, DEWEY, WOODWARD AND MAJOR COUNTIES WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 45 MILES AND WIDTH OF 600 YARDS.  TWO PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND 40 INJURED BY THIS “IMMENSE FUNNEL”.

052310

SEVERECAST DAY 83 – 7:00 a.m., SATURDAY, MAY 22

… NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED … 

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY.  THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. 

AT THE SURFACE… DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS… EVENTUALLY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE RESULT FOR OKLAHOMA WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS… WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS. 

A DRY LINE WILL BE FOUND IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE… HOWEVER MOST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1981… A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES OCCURRED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE LARGEST TORNADO…F4… TRACKED THROUGH PORTIONS OF CADDO AND CANADIAN COUNTIES FROM JUST WEST OF BINGER TO 11 ½ MILES NORTH OF UNION CITY.  THIS TORNADO APPROACHED ONE MILE IN WIDTH AND CREATED LARGE PROJECTILES OUT OF CARS, TRUCKS AND COMBINES.  DEAD CATTLE WERE FOUND IN DENUDED TREES.  WHILE SEVEN HOMES WERE DESTROYED… NOBODY WAS INJURED OR KILLED.

SEVERECAST DAY 82 – 7:00 a.m., FRIDAY, MAY 21

… SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING …

A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS.  THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS… HOWEVER… MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT 40 TO 50 KT FLOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLES. 

A SURFACE DRY LINE WILL TAKE SHAPE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER.  STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE DRY LINE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. 

WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CAP STRENGTH… SEVERAL MODEL SOURCES INDICATE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO FORM IN THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY… SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND SUPERCELL IN NATURE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1922… A TORNADO THAT TRACKED THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF GUTHRIE DESTROYED BARNS AND MANY BUILDINGS CAUSING 1/4 MILLION DOLLARS DAMAGE.  A HIGH NUMBER FOR 1922.  THE TORNADO WHICH HIT AROUND 7 P.M. ONLY CAUSED ONE INJURY.

052110

SEVERECAST DAY 81 – 7:00 a.m., THURSDAY, MAY 20

… SEVERE THREAT TODAY LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA … 

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD IOWA/MINNESOTA TODAY AND A POWERFUL STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 

A COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT… THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. 

0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO… HOWEVER… THE HIGHEST RISK FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRONGER. 

ON THIS DATE IN 1949… A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK – INCLUDING NUMEROUS STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADOES STRUCK OKLAHOMA.  THE FIRST LARGE TORNADO FORMED IN BEAVER COUNTY AROUND 5:30 P.M. AND IT WOULD BE AFTER 1:00 A.M. ON THE 21ST WHEN THE LAST TORNADO MOVED THROUGH VINITA IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  A TORNADO THAT MOVED OUT OF LIPSCOMB COUNTY TEXAS HAD A PATH NEARLY 55 MILES LONG AND MOVED THROUGH ELLIS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.  A PERSON WAS KILLED BY ANOTHER TORNADO NEAR CATESBY.  A 25 MILE LONG TORNADO IN ALFALFA AND GRANT COUNTIES KILLED A MAN AT YEWED.  A LARGE TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR GREENFIELD WHICH IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN F4.  IN CUSTER COUNTY… “THE BAWLING OF CATTLE COULD BE HEARD IN MID-AIR AND TRACKS COULD ONLY BE SEEN LEADING OUTWARD FROM THE SPOT WHERE THEY LANDED.”

052010

Okarche, Oklahoma