SEVERECAST DAY 53 – MIDNIGHT, THURSDAY, APRIL 22

…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK – INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PANHANDLE…

A LARGE AND DEEP AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT THE START OF THE DAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM… STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE LEADING EDGE OF DIFFLUENT 50 TO 60 KNOT 500 MB WINDS WILL BE REACHING WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY PEAK HEATING.

AT THE SURFACE…DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND A DRY LINE WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO KANSAS.  SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S EAST OF THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

WEAK CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  STRONGER STORMS MAY BE OCCURRING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER KANSAS.  DURING THE MORNING HOURS… THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS… THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WE SHOULD END UP WITH AN AXIS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MLCAPE JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BY MID AFTERNOON… WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND MOVE OFF OF THE DRY LINE IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL… DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR… ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM… A FEW OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG.

BY SUNSET… NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE DRY LINE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING WITH APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ON THIS DATE IN 1997… LARGE HAIL FELL IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND IDABEL AND BROKEN ARROW.  NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS… BUT IT WAS THE THIRD APRIL 22ND IN A ROW WHERE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRED IN THE STATE.  AFTER TAKING OFF A YEAR IN 1998… ANOTHER THREE YEAR STRETCH OCCURRED FROM 1999 TO 2001 MAKING THE DATE A SEVERE WEATHER DAY IN THE STATE FOR SIX OUT OF SEVEN YEARS.

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SEVERECAST DAY 52 – MIDNIGHT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21

…FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING…

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEVADA BETWEEN DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  WHILE NOT EXTREMELY STRONG… A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE… HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  PRESSURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE – SUB 1000 MB – TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS/TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES.  COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES… THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ALL MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY IN THE THREAT AREA.  SHORT RANGE MODELS TEND TO PLACE THIS FEATURE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE – WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS POINT MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  EITHER WAY… THE ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE… THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL WEST FLOW AROUND 30 KTS – WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR RAPID STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT LIKELY BE ALL THAT WARM AND LEND TO LOWER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS – LOWER LCL’S.  TORNADO PRODUCTION IS STILL LIKELY GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON STORM INTERACTION WITH EXISTING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES.

THERE MAY BE A DISTINCT NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WHICH COULD FALL VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  FOR NOW… WILL INCLUDE THAT AREA IN A REGION OF POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS WITH A LESSER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

ON THIS DATE IN 1996… A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3’S OF OKLAHOMA.  THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER REPORT WAS JUST AFTER 1 P.M. WITH NEARLY CONTINUOUS SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  IN ALL… OVER 200 REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WERE LOGGED IN THE STATE.  THERE WERE A HANDFUL OF SMALL TORNADOES… BUT LARGE HAIL WAS THE BIGGEST THREAT THAT DAY.  SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR NEWKIRK.  BASEBALL SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR STILLWATER, TIPTON, PERRY, COMANCHE, WAURIKA, JOY, BETHANY AND THACKERVILLE.

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SEVERECAST DAY 51a – 9:31 p.m., TUESDAY, APRIL 20

…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REDUCED FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT…

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND SHORT RANGE/HIGH-RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES.  MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE NOW ON CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THANKS TO SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR… SOME OF THESE STORMS WERE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE AT LEAST ONE TORNADO JUST WEST OF AMARILLO.

SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT… HOWEVER… THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STABLE TO PREVENT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  STILL— A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN THE PANHANDLE.

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SEVERECAST DAY 51 – MIDNIGHT, TUESDAY, APRIL 20

…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE – EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS…

SMALL SCALE – COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  00Z NAM FORECASTS A VERY STRONG UPPER STORM TO BE MOVING ONSHORE WEST COAST AT DAYBREAK.  AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN… A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES.

MOST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WORK EASTWARD – DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING… AND TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE RESULT… HOWEVER THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW.  STILL – LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AID IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ACTIVITY INITIALLY BEING SUPERCELL – ALTHOUGH HIGH BASED – IN NATURE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES… A LARGER SCALE MCS MAY DEVELOP WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  CONTINUING FAVORABLE SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL FAVOR SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

ON THIS DATE IN 1912… “CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS THE ROMPING GROUND OF THE STORM DEMON SATURDAY, AS MANIFESTED BY THE VISITATION OF NUMEROUS TORNADOES THAT LEFT DEATH AND DESOLATION IN THEIR WAKE.”  A STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADO FORMED JUST WEST OF YUKON AND TRACKED 20 MILES TO JUST EAST OF EDMOND.  WHILE THE SAME PATH TODAY WOULD HAVE INFLICTED A SERIOUS AMOUNT OF DAMAGE… IN 1912 – ONLY TWO FARM HOMES WERE DESTROYED.  ONE PERSON WAS KILLED BUT IT COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE.  A SCHOOL TWO MILES NORTH OF YUKON WAS LEVELED; JUST 15 MINUTES AFTER THE STUDENTS HAD LEFT.  ANOTHER STRONG TORNADO MOVED FROM ARCADIA TO NEAR FALLIS.  TWO PEOPLE WERE KILLED BY A VIOLENT TORNADO THAT HIT HENNESSEY – AND YET ANOTHER VIOLENT TORNADO KILLED THREE PEOPLE WHILE DESTROYING 25 FARMS SOUTHEAST OF PERRY.

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SEVERECAST DAY 50 – MIDNIGHT, MONDAY, APRIL 19

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY…

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST EAST OF OKLAHOMA THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS… WILL WADDLE AWAY FROM THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE PLAINS/ROCKIES.  A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE WEST COAST.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY.  ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH… WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE.

WE MAY SEE SOME HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO THE RECENT RAIN… HOWEVER – FOR TODAY – THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW.

MODELS SUGGEST AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE PANHANDLE LATE… HOWEVER, LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THEM BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.  FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY – THEN PANHANDLE AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY – BEFORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL EVOLVE ON THURSDAY.

ON THIS DATE IN 1933… A MILE WIDE – F4 – TORNADO MOVED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF AGAWAM TO EAST OF TABLER IN GRADY COUNTY.  FIVE FARMS WERE SWEPT AWAY AND THREE PEOPLE WERE KILLED.  SOME REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO MAY HAVE BEEN UPWARD OF TWO MILES WIDE.  ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER… A LARGE TORNADO INJURED FOUR PEOPLE ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF FREDERICK.  THIS TORNADO MAY HAVE BEEN ONE HALF MILE WIDE.

Wet Weather Coming to an End – Records Set

The cool and wet weather over the past several days set a few records in Okarche.  On the 17th… the high temperature of 53 degrees was the coolest high temperature on record.  The previous record was 59 degrees set in 2001.

On the 18th… the high temperature only reached 51 degrees which set a record for the coolest high temperature on the date.  The previous record was 66 degrees set in 1998.  Also… the total precipitation of 0.71 of an inch broke the old record of 0.30 of an inch set in 1990.

For Okarche… the three day total of precipitation was 2.37 inches.  We were edged out by Kingfisher which had 2.56 inches… but otherwise – we were on the high end in the immediate area.  The precipitation storm total map – updated at 2 a.m. on the 19th showed a ring of higher totals which surrounded southwest Oklahoma.

The precipitation was very welcome.  After dropping to near 2 1/2 inches below normal… we are back in the ball game.

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Greetings from the Pacific Northwest!

The move to Seattle was effortless… it was almost like we just went to bed one morning in Oklahoma and woke up in Washington.  So far, I love it here!  All the vegetation is full and green and wet – all barely moving from a light northeast breeze.  Absolutely beautiful!  We got just short of one inch of rain on Friday… another 0.69 of an inch yesterday… and so far this morning we have already received a third of an inch.  It’s the steadiest rain I think I have ever seen.  Never more than about 1/8th inch an hour rate… but it’s been raining for about 48 hours straight!  And, it doesn’t look like it’s going to end today.  A little chilly for April… but I suppose I can get used to that.  I expect back in Oklahoma that people are waking up to a day that will be pushing 80 degrees and the strong south wind will be blowing.  It’s also nice to now be living in a city with pro sports.  Our NBA team has made the playoffs and will face the dreaded Lakers this afternoon!  Go Sonics!

SEVERECAST DAY 49 – MIDNIGHT, SUNDAY, APRIL 18

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY…

A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  WEAK INSTABILITY AND FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL PREVENT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ON THIS DATE IN 1927… A VIOLENT TORNADO – 20 MILES LONG AND ONE HALF MILE WIDE CROSSED THE RED RIVER INTO CHOCTAW COUNTY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  DESPITE REMAINING IN RURAL AREAS… 10 PEOPLE WERE KILLED IN OKLAHOMA (ONE IN TEXAS).  THE DEATHS INCLUDED A FAMILY OF SIX LIVING NEAR THE KIAMICHI RIVER.  ANOTHER PERSON – ACTING AS A RESCUER – DIED OF DROWNING WHILE EN ROUTE TO THE SCENE.

SEVERECAST DAY 48 – MIDNIGHT, SATURDAY, APRIL 17

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY…

A WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA WILL WANDER EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFTING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED ALL OF THE STATE.

SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD NEAR THE RED RIVER… BUT LOW LEVELS OF  INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT SEVERE STORMS.

ON THIS DATE IN 1978… THREE TORNADOES “MADE A SUDDEN ATTACK” ON KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  THE MID AFTERNOON TORNADOES STAYED MOSTLY IN RURAL AREAS BUT DAMAGED OR DESTROYED A LARGE NUMBER OF BARNS AND MOBILE HOMES.  ALSO… EXTENSIVE DAMAGE OCCURRED TO A DAIRY FARM WHERE TRUCKS WERE SEEN “UP IN THE AIR ABOUT 100 FEET.”

SEVERECAST DAY 47 – MIDNIGHT, FRIDAY, APRIL 16

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY…

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFTING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

AT THE SURFACE… A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE WORKED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND MAKE IT TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

MODELS GENERATE LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CAPE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  THIS COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE LATEST GFS DOESN’T WORK ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL FLOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR ANOTHER SIX OR SEVEN DAYS… MEANING THE SEVERE-LESS STREAK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AWHILE.

ON THIS DATE IN 1967… A TORNADO (F2) HIT THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF WEWOKA.  THE 14 MILE LONG EVENT DAMAGED SEVERAL HOMES AND BUSINESSES AND CAUSED THREE INJURIES.  KWSH RADIO HAD TWO 260-FEET TRANSMISSION TOWERS BLOWN DOWN AND THE ROOF TAKEN FROM THEIR RADIO STATION.  “BOB FITTS, A DISC JOCKEY, WAS ON THE AIR SPINNING RECORDS WHEN THE STORM STRUCK WITHOUT WARNING.  HE SAID HE CROUCHED UNDERNEATH THE TURNTABLE AS THE STORM TOOK THE ROOF OFF.”

Okarche, Oklahoma