…Strong storm system to affect the Southern Plains to start the week…
A very strong jet segment is approaching the Pacific Northwest. This feature will be diving southeastward, eventually carving out an upper low over the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Meanwhile, another strong upper wave will be dropping south from the Canadian Prairies. The two features will eventually phase near and east of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Overall, models have trended stronger with the eventual solution.
Temperatures have returned closer to seasonal values, and that will be the case through Wednesday.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be occurring near and north of a stationary front southeast of Oklahoma on Monday. Some precipitation is likely to make it into southeast sections of the state. By late afternoon and evening, the surface reflection of the approaching upper system will be organizing to our southwest. Rain and snow is expected to develop in strong upslope flow over northeast New Mexico, and some of this precipitation is likely to make it into the western Oklahoma Panhandle. Some significant snow accumulations will be possible Tuesday morning near the Oklahoma/New Mexico border. More widespread rain will be breaking out from eastern New Mexico to central Texas, where a few thunderstorms will also be possible. This area of rain will build into Oklahoma late on Monday and early Tuesday.
As the surface cyclone rapidly deepens over central and eastern Texas on Tuesday, widespread rain and thunderstorms will be occurring over east Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. This rain will also wrap back across southern and eastern Oklahoma. A decent rain is looking more likely, especially across south central and southeast sections of the state. Windy conditions with rain ending from west to east across the state will occur through Tuesday evening. Wednesday should see most of the state precipitation free, and winds will be subsiding. There remains some question how far north rain will spread across Oklahoma. Areas near the Kansas border may see very little, or none.
…Addressing snow potential…
Several pieces of model data suggest that precipitation on Tuesday and early Wednesday may change over or at least mix with snow. Given the strength of this system and its ability to cool the column sufficiently for snow, this scenario is not completely out of the question. The greatest potential for snowfall would be from the Arbuckle Mountains northeastward across east central and northeast Oklahoma. A spotty change over could occur over parts of central, west central and southwest Oklahoma. Should an area see a complete change over to snow, accumulations on grassy areas could reach 1 to 3 inches. Soil temperatures this morning range from the mid-40s to the mid-50s across the state, so any snow that does fall isn’t going to hang around very long. Bottom line, any impacts from snow with this system will be minimal across the main body of the state.
…Hazards…
Monday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Tuesday… Snowfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible near the western end of the Oklahoma Panhandle, resulting in hazardous driving conditions. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible from Tuesday into early Wednesday over far southeast Oklahoma, resulting in localized flooding. Winds across the state will increase out of the north with gusts from 35 to 45 mph possible.
Wednesday… (See Tuesday)
…Okarche Weather…
Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 34 Observed: 31
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northeast 5 to 15 mph.
Monday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain.
High: 59 Observed: 59
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
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Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with rain.
Low: 41 Observed: 38
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 100%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 2%
Observed: 0.07
Winds: Northeast 10 to 20 mph, becoming northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Cloudy with a chance of rain.
High: 50 Observed: 45
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.04
Winds: North 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy
Low: 32 Observed: 29
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny
High: 54 Observed: 60
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 10 to 20 mph.