Category Archives: Upcoming Weather Event

Hang on folks… just a little bit longer…

The weather pattern looks active as far as the eye can see tonight.  The next storm system that will be sliding by just to our southwest should keep any significant snowfall limited to the far south and west edges of the state.  There is not enough evidence to support significant snow in the main body of Oklahoma… and thus, this will be the last post which has focus on winter time weather this season.

March is here!  Or, at least where we can smell it.  It has been a brutal couple of months and I am glad to be seeing some of the signs of warm weather and thunderstorms showing up on the medium range models.  With only two days to go in February – there have only been three days where the temperature made it to above average.  The last couple of days don’t give us much hope either and this may be one of the coldest Februarys that I have ever recorded.  I sure hope that March is ready to roar like a lion!

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Time to plant… time to build… time to rake… time to get this crap rolling… Spring is just around the corner…..ahhhh, it will be nice……

And the countdown begins…

We are gaining about two minutes of daylight a day now in Oklahoma.  Spring is rapidly approaching and we will soon turn our attention to severe weather.

I have tried to give my best shot at forecasting snow in Oklahoma over the past several months.  The results?… eh, not too bad in general.  A few good ones… a few bad ones.   I have never proclaimed to be a good winter weather forecaster… but it has been fun.  I will continue to forecast winter weather as it comes up over the next couple of weeks… but, I will change the forecast challenge to severe weather on March 1st.

Most say that the storm season in Oklahoma begins on April 1st.  Some say March 15th.  While we may go through the first half of March cool and stable many years… I have also seen some very active years as well.  I have always considered March 1st to be the start of the severe storm season in Oklahoma.

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The following chart from the SPC shows the typical increase in severe weather within range of the Norman, WSR-88D radar:

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Cold Air Coming…

GFS and NAM have similar solutions in dealing with the next blast of cold air that will enter the state early Sunday morning.  The NAM has been stronger with the mid level system helping to bring the cold air down… but the location of key features have been very close to the GFS.

Several model sets over the past 48 hours have generated light snowfall across the state on Sunday – and in some cases… 1 to 2 inches of snow (mostly over northern and central Oklahoma).  00z and 06z solutions have backed off on the accumulating snow… but it is still likely that some light snowfall will be squeezed out of the atmosphere with the strong cold air advection taking place during the day.
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One thing is certain… it will be turning cold and windy on Valentine’s Day.  Leading up to that… today has the chance at being one of the warmest days we have seen since January 27th.  After the fog burns off this afternoon… temperatures should quickly head toward the mid 50’s.  Enjoy it… lows in the teens will be returning to Oklahoma to start the coming week.

Honey, for Valentine’s Day… I got you – arctic air!

OK… it may not have a true arctic origin… but it will feel like it.

I know the calendar says that we are still deep in the middle of winter… but I think that it’s what we’ve dealt with so far that makes this seem like the winter that won’t end.

Snow is winding down over southeast Oklahoma at this hour… several inches of snow fell today over portions of the south central and southeast sections of the state.  Meanwhile… we are already watching some very cold air that is building up north which will make a hard run toward us.

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The leading edge of the coldest temperatures will be located near the Oklahoma/Kansas border by Midnight, Sunday.  By Noon… winds will be strong out of the north… temperatures will be falling steadily and there may even by some light snow blowing around.  Happy Valentines Day.  Temperatures are likely to fall to near single digits by Monday morning and have a hard time approaching freezing Monday afternoon.

Afterward… there are no signs of significant cold air which gets us into the last week of the month.  Many things can change between now and then.  Trouble is… despite the fact that no real cold air looks ready to pounce after this next spell… there are no signs of a strong warm up either.

Turning a corner?

Possibly… but some very cold air is on the horizon.  We have passed what “averages” to be the coldest part of the winter.  On this date in 1996… Okarche saw a low temperature of minus 2.  Yes, bitter cold air can still make an appearance in Oklahoma.  However… the temperature charts show good things just around the corner.  Here in a couple of weeks… we will start seeing a steady increase in average and record temperatures.  The average low temperature on February 19th exceeds 32 degrees for the first time since the first part of December.

That was the good news… the bad news is that arctic air looks like it will soon make a run at the state.  Morning data suggests that cold air will spill into northwest Oklahoma Monday morning and have a solid hold on the entire state by nightfall.  There may be a mix of winter precipitation with it – even some accumulating snows in northern Oklahoma… but the cold air/wind chills will likely be the main story.  Still need to watch this one close as we will be flirting with the potential for significant precipitation.

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Ahhhhctober!

On the weather front… many interesting events are on the horizon.  A strong upper storm system in the southwest U.S. is forecast to move eastward through the southern Plains.  Another storm in Canada will dive southeastward toward the Great Lakes.  These two storms will be responsible for several weather changes during the next four to five days.

 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already organizing in southern Oklahoma this morning as moisture increases in advance of the southwest U.S. storm.  Precipitation should become more widespread by this evening and continue through Thursday.  Before it ends Friday morning, some places in the state could see over four inches of rain.  While it does look like the heavier rainfall will be in eastern Oklahoma… Okarche stands to see a couple of inches.

 

The first of a couple of fronts will clear the state Friday morning and we will be left with a fairly nice and cool evening.  A much stronger cold front will surge into the state Saturday morning.  Behind this front… winds will become quite strong out of the north and temperatures should fall to the lowest levels so far in this early Fall.  The low temperature Sunday night should make it well below 40 degrees with the first frost possible.

 
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On the astro front… a couple of events will be taking place this month.  A close conjunction on October 13: Around 5:30 a.m. Venus and Saturn will pop up in the eastern sky – separated by less than ½ degree.  Venus on the right will be a bright -3.67 magnitude… Saturn on the left will be around 1.39 magnitude.  Mercury makes its appearance about an hour later at -0.95 mag.

 

The Orionids Meteor Shower will run from October 17 to 25.  While this shower typically produces only about 20 meteors per hour during its peak… viewing this year will be nice as a waxing crescent moon will set early.  Any clear nights should be well dark providing an excellent opportunity for viewing and photography.

 

Finally, Fall foliage.  We are not that far away from color change here inIn southeast Oklahoma / 2-Nov-2008 Oklahoma.  It’s actually already started… but should kick into high gear soon.  Last year I took a trip to southeast Oklahoma.  This year, I think I will be spending a couple of days at four spots west of Highway 81.  If all goes well… a day will be spent south of I-40 in the Wichita Wildlife Refuge and around Red Rock Canyon State Park.  Another day will be set aside for areas around Roman Nose State Park and Great Salt Plains State Park to the north of I-40.

Wake up! It’s starting to get interesting…

We went from very little to talk about – to quite a bit to talk about in just a couple of days.  First off, the sun.  I’m happy to see it going away.  Sunrise this morning in Okarche was 6:50 a.m…. sunset was at 8:22 p.m.  In just one week, sunrise will be at 6:56 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.  14 minutes in one week.  Doesn’t seem like much at only two minutes a day… but we shell off a half hour in just two weeks.  I’ve never been a fan of mornings… afternoons as far as that goes.  Truth be known… sunset is the only time I enjoy being able to see the sun.  If it wasn’t needed to get storms…. It wouldn’t bother me if it never came up.  I notice the difference every year at this time because it was the first time since summer began that I was able to drive to work without having it blast me in the face on the way in.  Yes, the countdown to the start of Fall can begin soon…

Next up is the overall weather pattern.  We have been getting lucky so far this August with temperatures reaching 100 degrees only a couple of times and several days with highs around 90 lately.  Model data suggests that the general theme of a broad trough in the central and north central U.S. will continue for the next week which will bring near or below normal temperatures and chances of thunderstorms.  If this holds true…. we will be getting within a three week period remaining until the magic date of September 8 where extreme heat usually ends in central Oklahoma.  In Okarche… several days in the first week of September have reached 110 degrees in the past.  However… the record high for September 8 is only 98 degrees and temps typically trend downward from there.
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Then there’s the tropics.  What has been a fairly quiet season so far in the Atlantic basin may be getting ready to change.  There are several disturbances that are roaming westward along the ITCZ.  More than one set of data suggests a major hurricane will be approaching the southeast part of the U.S. by the 23rd.  Time will tell on this…. but something to watch out for…