Severe thunderstorms possible this evening

3:29 pm CST Monday February 29 2016

The latest surface map shows low pressure near the Kansas / Nebraska border with a trough extending southwest to eastern New Mexico.  A weak front that is becoming diffuse lies east / west near the Red River.  Low level moisture with dew point temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s are located near and south of this boundary.

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As the atmosphere becomes more moist and unstable this evening, and as lift associated with the approaching wave begins to overspread the area, thunderstorms are expected to form over west central and northwest Oklahoma.  These storms will move east southeastward across central Oklahoma late this evening and early Tuesday morning.

There will be sufficient shear and instability to support vigorous updrafts and some of the storms are likely to become severe.  A few instances of damaging winds will be possible, but the primary threat with storms tonight will be hail, with some of the higher end reports being near the size of golfballs.