Significant impact storm / February 22-25, 2016 / 2016 #4 (Closed)

Significant impact storm / February 22-25, 2016 / 2016 #4 (Closed)

A powerful upper storm system and its associated deep surface cyclone will drop across the Southern Plains on Monday and lift northeastward across the Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes through the middle of the week.  While some large snow totals are likely over a relatively small area, the lack of deep cold air should keep the winter impacts at a minimum.  Of greater concern is the severe thunderstorm risk that will span across three days.  A significant tornado threat may evolve on Tuesday from southern Louisiana eastward across the southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

1024 PM CST MON FEB 22, 2016:

Severe thunderstorms have developed in Texas this evening.  A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued.  One particularly strong storm is going to come very close to Del Rio.  This storm is likely producing hail to the size of tennis balls and damaging winds.

739 AM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

With cold air lacking, the winter aspects of this storm are not going to be very extreme.  Heavy snow has been falling over northeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas.  Otherwise, the only winter related headlines are a Winter Storm Watch that extends from eastern Illinois to Lower Michigan.

Today should be an active day for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.  Early this morning, storms moving through the Houston area have been taking advantage of strong low level shear and a tornado may have occurred over rural areas of southwest Galveston County.

1123 AM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

The first Tornado Watch of the day has been issued for portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.  Currently, there are two rotating storms that carry a Tornado Warning just west of New Orleans.  These storms will soon be moving across western and central Lake Pontchartrain.

1241 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

It appears that a potentially strong tornado has either hit or come very close to hitting the city of Livingston, Louisiana.  The area most likely affected would be the west side of the city.   Livingston is about 25 miles east of Baton Rouge.

113 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

While considerably weaker than it was as it passed across Livingston, Louisiana – a tornado is still likely occurring.  It currently is located between Independence and Montpelier and is displaying occasional signs of lofted debris.

326 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

A large and potentially strong tornado is occurring just south of Donaldsonville, Louisiana.  The tornado is tracking through rural areas toward the western side of Lake Pontchartrain, but appears it has struck some structures based on the strong debris signature from the KLIX radar.  Donaldsonville is about 30 miles south of Baton Rouge.

400 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

As parameters become increasingly favorable for rotating storms, mesocyclones have become more numerous and stronger over the last hour.  New tornado watches have been issued from central Mississippi southward across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.  The Storm Prediction Center has used enhanced wording / Particularly Dangerous Situation / on the southeastern most watch, wording that is reserved for events capable of producing strong and long-lived tornadoes.

A tornado is occurring in Mississippi just southeast of Sandy Hook.  Radar shows a strong and tight circulation with evidence of lofted debris.

407 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

413 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

A powerful circulation is moving across the northwest side of Lake Pontchartrain.  Should this survive over the next 30 minutes, it will be approaching the communities of Mandeville and Madisonville on the north side of the lake.

430 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

451 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

Thankfully, the strong circulation over Lake Pontchartrain has weakened for the time being as it moved off the lake and over Madisonville and Lewisburg.  The storm remains tornado warned…

A new tornado has developed over the southwest part of the lake.

636 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

Several tornado warnings are in effect for counties in southwest Alabama, but it has been quite some time since the last circulation looked strong or tight enough to produce a significant tornado.  Several places have likely seen some wind damage.  Conditions for tornado production will remain elevated through the evening hours, and rapid tornado development remains a distinct possibility.

725 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

A strong supercell and associated mesocyclone has been tracking across the open water of the Gulf of Mexico, but is now approaching shore.  Chances are good that this produced at least one tornado in the gulf, and the storm may produce more as it approaches Orange Beach, Alabama and Paradise Beach, Florida.

1148 PM CST TUE FEB 23, 2016:

There have been several tornadic circulations noted during the past hour from eastern Alabama and western Georgia southward into the Florida Panhandle.  This storm produced a Tornado Debris Signature over eastern Henry County in Alabama:

A new Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of central Georgia:

Unofficially, three people have been reported killed from today’s storms.  All apparently came from tornado events – two in Louisiana and one in Mississippi.

A broad area from Arkansas northeastward to the Great Lakes and New England is now under winter weather advisories and warnings.  Winter storm warnings are in effect from eastern Illinois to Lower Michigan:
This manufacturing 5mg cialis tablets company has gain a huge popularity in the shortest time. It may be beyond his ability cialis pills free or physical capability. Often the loss of sexual appetite is owing to the rise generic tadalafil no prescription in cases of obesity and diabetes. It is widely used glacialridgebyway.com online prescription for cialis in the manufacture of Tongkat Ali Extract.

From WPC, there is a better than 50 percent chance of 8 inch snowfall across the Winter Storm Warning area:

135 AM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

The latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center shows a widespread threat for tornadoes will continue on Wednesday from Florida northward to New Jersey.  Of particular concern is a risk for strong tornadoes over central and eastern North Carolina, southeast Virginia and a small part of northeast South Carolina.

811 AM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

Deep low pressure / 989 mb / is located over Kentucky this morning.  Enough cold air is being wrapped into the system to generate snowfall / some very heavy / from New England to the southern Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley.  Strong winds combined with the heavy snow will result in blizzard conditions today over eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana.

Severe thunderstorms will once again be likely today.  A warm and moist atmosphere is advancing northward across the Carolina’s.  Strong low and deep layer shear will create a profile favorable for supercell storms and tornadoes, especially from southern Maryland to eastern North Carolina where conditions are expected to become particularly favorable for the development of strong and/or long-lived tornadoes.  At least some tornado threat will extend all the way from southern New York to Florida.

1232 PM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

Tornado watches are in effect from the Carolina’s to southern Maryland:

As always, you don’t need a watch / or even a warning / to have a tornado.  It appears that at least some damage has occurred recently in Harbour Heights, Florida.

Updated 819 AM CST THU FEB 25:  Storm survey information on this tornado – 33 homes damaged – 5 with significant damage.  1 person injured.  Rated EF1 – 100 yards wide – 1.1 mile long.

This tornadic circulation developed rapidly and produced a Tornado Debris Signature on radar over the northwest side of the city.  A TDS doesn’t necessarily mean “building” debris, as it could just be plant and tree material, but something was lofted in the area of this detection:

Location of TDS:

150 PM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

It appears that a tornado has either hit or come very close to the west side of Waverly, Virginia.  (UPDATED at 358 PM: 2 people were killed by this tornado)  This was a very close sampling by the Wakefield, Virginia radar site which was only 5.6 nautical miles from the TVS.  Not only was a TDS detected, but high reflectivity (or debris ball) was also detected in the hook.  It looks as if the tornado was short-lived:

337 PM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

A significant tornado event may have just occurred at Oxford, North Carolina.  Radar paints an ugly picture of a very strong mesocyclone passing nearly straight over the city with a large plume of debris indicated as it leaves Oxford.  This storm is now headed toward South Hill, Virginia.

419 PM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

In southern North Carolina, there are very strong indications of a tornado passing close to Saint Pauls.

434 PM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

From WRAL in North Carolina – an image northeast of Oxford, North Carolina earlier:

620 PM CST WED FEB 24, 2016:

Several places from Maryland south into northeast North Carolina are under a Tornado Warning at this hour, but it has been over an hour since a significant circulation or evidence of lofted debris has been detected by radar.  The atmosphere is beginning to stabilize and the severe threat should continue to wane through the evening.  Meanwhile, Blizzard Warnings continue for heavy snow and high winds from eastern Illinois northeastward.  The latest surface weather map shows the lowest pressure over northeast Ohio at less than 989 mb.

The death toll at Waverly, Virginia / previously addressed tornado / has risen to three.

357 PM CST THU FEB 25, 2016:

Snowfall over Illinois/Indiana/Michigan –

1210 PM CST FRI FEB 26, 2016:

Links to NWS sites with damage survey information of tornado events:

AKQ

RAH

MHX

TAE

BMX

JAN

LIX