SEVERECAST DAY 27 – MIDNIGHT, SATURDAY, MARCH 27

…ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON…

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD NEAR THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOO FAR SOUTH BY THE 00Z NAM AND THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH ITS LOCATION.  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO/MISSISIPPI RIVERS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE WEATHER MAP IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THIS STORM IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK – IF IT HAD MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THE WARM SECTOR ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY TODAY IN OKLAHOMA.
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IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION – GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT – THAT STORMS FORMING NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF SEVERE REPORTS BEFORE THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES INTO ARKANSAS/MISSOURI.  A WEAK… SHORT-LIVED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THESE SEVERE EVENTS WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.  AT THIS TIME… THE DEGREE OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOKED AREA.

ON THIS DATE IN 1975… A 3:30 A.M. TORNADO HIT NEAR ELK CITY.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS CONFINED TO A MOBILE HOME.  “A COUPLE WAS IN BED WHEN THE WHIRLWIND STRUCK WITHOUT WARNING, LIFTING THE HOME FROM ITS FOUNDATION AND TOSSING THE COUPLE INTO THE MUD OUTSIDE.”