Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

There are only small differences between the GFS and euro concerning the pattern evolution through mid week.

A strong short wave trough will pass across the Plains tonight and early on Monday.  The surface reflection of this system is a very deep cyclone which will track along the South Dakota/Nebraska border toward Southern Minnesota.  There are model indications that scattered showers and thunderstorms will form over Central Oklahoma by Monday morning.  These will track across Eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon.  Another warm day is in store for the state on Monday before a southward moving cold front crosses Northern Oklahoma from late Monday into early Tuesday.

The front is expected to stall just south of I-40 on Tuesday.  Tuesday morning will be chilly across the northern half of the state, while seasonably warm temperatures will be found near and just north of the Red River.  By late Tuesday, another strong storm system will be moving toward the Plains.  Surface pressures will fall over the High Plains and the front across the state will begin to lift back to the north.  There is an outside chance of a thunderstorm or two on Tuesday in the area of a dryline/warm front intersection which is expected to be located over Western Oklahoma.

By Wednesday morning, the front will have lifted to near the Kansas border, leaving most of the state in the warm sector.  With another day of return flow, moisture should be sufficient for the atmosphere to become quite unstable through the day.  Lifting associated with the approaching Western U.S. system will start to spread across the Plains, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the main body of the state.  Current indications are that sufficient instability and deep layer shear will be in place to support a severe threat from storms that are able to form.  It also appears that all facets of severe weather will be possible – including tornadoes.  With this being the first significant severe weather episode this year, now is a good time to review severe weather safety rules.

For years, the rules were fairly simple.  Storm shelter is best, otherwise use the center part of the house – lowest level – smallest room.  Put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado.  Cover up and hang on!  Recently, we have been encountering great numbers of people fleeing in vehicles.  With that in mind, the following advice is offered:  If you are in a building where you don’t feel safe, the time to go to better shelter is when a watch is issued.  Do not wait until you are in a warning – it will likely be too late to allow you to reach your safe spot in time.  If you find yourself in a warning, take the best shelter that is available to you at your location.

Okarche Weather:

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Monday: 78

Tuesday morning: 42

Tuesday: 67 / Showers and thunderstorms possible by evening

Wednesday morning: 60 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 75 / Showers and thunderstorms likely