Snowcast Event 12 – Update 2 – Midnight, Thu, Feb 25

00Z NAM is not only stronger with the upper system that will be affecting the state during the next 24 to 48 hours but also slightly cooler.  This despite what should be some decent warm air advection that will be taking place in advance of the storm.  A combination of stronger lifting and relatively dry air in the lower levels may serve to overcome the WAA and produce a profile suitable for snow.  I’m still not completely ready to buy into this being a significant snow event.  However… there are some signals that suggest it may be more than what was previously forecast.  It’s also worthy of noting that “significant” in central and eastern Oklahoma is anything more than a “few” inches.

As mentioned… model data is trending toward a stronger solution.  The evening run of the NAM is also farther south with the track of the upper low… taking it from the Oklahoma Panhandle around Noon on Thursday to near Paris, Texas by 6 p.m. on Friday.  The greatest potential of heavy snow bursts would be just northeast of this track.  (Getting a quick look at the latest GFS which while not quite as strong – has a similar track as the NAM).

Of particular interest is the fact that models have become similar in slowing down the system a bit.  While overall snow amounts shouldn’t be excessive… it does appear that places that see a quick change from rain to snow may see snow for a longer period of time that previously expected.  This slow-down will also delay the start of accumulating snow in the Panhandle and northwest until afternoon… with snow likely continuing into the afternoon hours on Friday in the southeast.
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Going to edge snowfall expectations upward a bit over the central and eastern part of the state with this forecast.  Given the fact that the system may be stronger than previously expected… will also edge up amounts in northwest Oklahoma and portions of the Panhandle.  If a change over to snow occurs in central and eastern Oklahoma quicker than forecast… amounts in those areas will need to be pushed upward to match expected totals in the northwest.

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