Snowcast Event 12 – Update 1 – Noon, Wed, Feb 24

The weather pattern is set to remain very active during the next week.  This morning… a large trough of low pressure was found from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf of Mexico.  A ridge of High pressure extended from Saskatchewan to the southwest U.S.  Several short wave troughs were moving onshore along the west coast.

The morning models are similar in crashing short waves into and flattening the ridge during the next 24 hours with a significant wave developing and impacting the weather in Oklahoma starting Thursday morning.  While differences are subtle between the GFS and NAM regarding the evolution of this short wave trough… they are of the right magnitude and location to cause forecast issues in the state.

The NAM is stronger with the system than the GFS… resulting in a stronger 850 MB low… resulting in stronger warm air advection.  It’s this warm air advection that would bring in a nose of warm air above the surface… limiting significant snowfall to the northwest part of the state.  Still… a cold rain with an eventual change over to snow would be likely to the east and south.  The GFS is not quite as aggressive with the warm nose and as a result has a cooler column across much of the northeast 2/3’s of the state – capable of supporting accumulating snowfall.

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For this first forecast on the event… I’m going to take the middle ground and look for about an inch of snow in the central and southeast with one to three inches possible in the northwest.  Locally higher amounts by an inch or so are possible in all areas and hopefully evening model runs tonight will be able to shed a little more light.  This will be a fairly quick hitting system – so, a worst case scenario shouldn’t produce more than about four inches in any one area.

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