Severe storms possible across Western Oklahoma this evening

Model guidance and satellite imagery suggest that a weak short wave trough is moving east northeastward through New Mexico this morning.  Meanwhile, the atmosphere across the state has become somewhat moist with 50 and 60 dewpoints having spread northward over the last 24 hours.  Morning sounding data suggest that this moisture is not very deep, and that this will play an important part in how organized storms become later today.

As moisture continues to increase and subtle lifting from the approaching wave reach the western edge of the moist plume, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected from Southwest Kansas to the Texas South Plains.  The combination of a vertical wind profile supportive of supercell storms, and steepening lapse rates by evening suggest that a few severe events will be possible.  Limited moisture will likely prevent more than a couple of severe storms from occurring.

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Strong / but not likely severe storms / will continue through the overnight hours into Central Oklahoma.