Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Risk Today (May 29, 2013)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A strong short wave trough will be moving northeastward out of the Southern Rockies across the Southern and Central Plains this afternoon.  In response, deep surface low pressure will organize over SE Colorado and SW Kansas.  A dryline which is currently in far W Texas will begin to advance eastward during the afternoon.  This feature will be the primary focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development.

The basic setup is classic for a Plains severe weather episode.  The atmosphere east of the dryline is moist and will become quite unstable as heating begins this afternoon.  Forecast soundings show strong deep layer shear in place to allow for storms to rapidly organize into supercells.  The lowest levels show sufficient turning for tornado production with any sustained supercell storm.

People across much of Central and Western Oklahoma should stay alert this afternoon and evening.  Thunderstorms will be capable of producing all facets of severe weather with some strong tornadoes expected.  While it appears that the risk late this evening will wane some as storms approach C Oklahoma, there will continue to be a tornado threat with any long-track supercell storm that may develop this afternoon.