Latest water vapor imagery shows strong vort center moving east into northwest Texas. RUC shows this feature tracking east and then east northeast during the next 12 hours toward east central Oklahoma. This seems a reasonable scenario and we may finally have a handle on this system – just as it comes to an end.
Strong lifting north and northeast of the vort center is expanding/organizing and increasing the intensity of precipitation across Oklahoma. SPC meso-analysis shows that critical thickness values have FINALLY lowered sufficiently for all snow northwest of a line from Waurika to Purcell to Chandler to Miami. This line will continue to advance east through the afternoon. It appears that the center of the strongest lifting/wrap-around duration will extend from Cordell to Oklahoma City to Jay. In this area… an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely… 4 to 5 would not be out of the question… especially from just west of the OKC metro area to the Arkansas border.
Radar returns in precipitation southeast of the snow area continue to suggest sleet… and there is likely a band of freezing rain across portions of southeast Oklahoma. For now… about the 8 southeastern most counties of Oklahoma continue above freezing… but should be able to switch to a winter mix before the event comes to an end this evening.
At the current time in Okarche… moderate snow and flowing electrical power. It’s a beautiful day…