Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Upper: Model data this evening is in fairly good agreement through 72 hours, which gets us to the end of this outlook period.  There are some significant differences after Wednesday that hopefully get sorted by mid-week.  The strongest mid-level flow through Monday will be found over the northern part of the U.S.  Over the Southern Plains, a weak trough of low pressure will be located over Central and Southern Texas.  A very strong jet segment will be moving southeastward over the Pacific Northwest.  By late afternoon on Tuesday, a sharpening trough of low pressure will be found over the Snake River Valley and Great Basin.  Weak low pressure will be moving eastward along the Gulf Coast.  By Wednesday morning, the strong trough over the Rockies will be overspreading the High Plains with moderately strong southwest flow aloft beginning to spread over Oklahoma.

Surface: Pressures will fall steadily across the High Plains during the day Monday, with southwest winds over Oklahoma.  By Noon Tuesday, a cold front will begin to move southward over the Central Plains while organized low pressure develops over Southeast Colorado.  The cold front will be pushing into Northwest Oklahoma just before daybreak on Wednesday.  This strong front will make it through almost all of the state by sunset.

Impacts: Southwest winds, warm temperatures and fairly low humidity will result in elevated fire danger across portions of Western Oklahoma on Monday.  Near the Texas border, winds may gust during the day to near 40 mph.  Similar conditions on Tuesday will again result in elevated fire danger.  Winds will once again be gusting to around 40 mph.  Temperatures will be above / well above in some areas / normal on Monday and Tuesday.  As the cold front pushes through the state on Wednesday, strong north winds gusting to 40 mph and much cooler air will spread into Oklahoma.  By afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected along and behind the front, with the greatest precipitation chances across the southeast 2/3’s of the state.  Precipitation chances will remain quite high statewide into Thursday.

Okarche weather:

Monday morning: 58

Monday: 88
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Tuesday morning: 61

Tuesday: 86

Wednesday morning: 62

Wednesday: 76 / Showers and thunderstorms