Snowcast Event 6 – Update 4 – Midnight, Thu, Jan 28

Hide and watch… that’s about the only thing to do now.  A significant winter storm will be unfolding across the state within the next 18 to 24 hours.  MANY questions exist with regard to timing of precipitation transitions from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow -also with regard to total accumulation amounts.

Cold enough air through a deep enough layer should settle into the Panhandle… northwest and part of north central/northeast Oklahoma for the precipitation to come in the form of snow.  There will be significant amounts… especially in the Woodward and Alva area where isolated amounts could push 18 inches.

The sub-freezing surface air will have a hard time pushing into southeast Oklahoma… and generally light accumulations of freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow are expected.

With the two above mentioned regions lay the highest confidence of the forecast.

This leaves a broad zone from southwest to central to east central Oklahoma with the greatest concentration of possible precipitation zones – and thus, the lowest confidence of the forecast.

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The freezing line has pushed into the Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma at this hour and will continue to shift toward central Oklahoma by daybreak.  Thereafter… it is expected to only make slow progress southeastward during the day.  It is likely to hang up from somewhere west of Ardmore to near Ada to near Fort Smith by late afternoon.

Ice storm conditions – where trees and power lines collapse – usually occur in narrow zones with systems of this nature… possibly on the order of only 20 miles or so wide.  It is nearly impossible to predict where a zone that narrow will fall until the event begins unfolding.  For now… it appears that the most likely area will extend from near Altus and Snyder in southwest Oklahoma – to the OKC metro area – toward southern Tulsa.  Mostly freezing rain and some sleet will fall south of this area… while accumulations of sleet and to a lesser extent, freezing rain will be found to the north.  These areas will also see at least some light accumulation of snow on top of the ice and sleet before the precipitation ends Friday morning in the southwest and early Friday evening in the east.

An attempt will be made to further refine the forecast at Noon… however, as previously mentioned… it is likely that the event will need to start unfolding before high impact areas can be recognized.  Preparations for the storm should be completed.  Much of the northwest 2/3’s of Oklahoma will see deteriorating weather conditions as the day progresses.  By overnight Thursday into Friday… it is very possible that large amounts of the power grid could be damaged or shut down… along with the usual travel issues that come from winter storms.

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