Major winter storm to impact state…

In a significant change to the thinking of a few days ago, a major winter storm is now expected to bring heavy snow to a large part of western and northern Oklahoma with blizzard conditions in the northwest part of the state.

The next major storm to affect the state is now forecast to be much stronger, farther south and wetter than previously thought.  The system is currently moving southeast over the West Coast and will be diving to the Four Corners by Sunday morning.  It is expected to close off and track east near the Red River on Monday.  In response, deep surface low pressure will organize over Northwest Texas and track toward eastern Oklahoma.

Snow is expected to start over western Oklahoma around 9 pm on Sunday and won’t be exiting the northeast part of the state until after sunrise on Tuesday.  The heaviest snow / where a foot is possible / will likely be limited to Northwest Oklahoma.  However, significant accumulations can generally be expected anywhere northwest of I-44.

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It is worth noting that the 12Z NAM (23rd) has just come in with a much weaker cyclone and a resulting lower snowfall / wind forecast.  Currently, this run is an outlier.  However, it is important in that this is the first model output which takes in data that has sampled the system as it is passing over land.  Should other models follow this trend, a strong downplay to the current forecast would be needed.  More should be known by later today.