Rain chances increase by midweek…

A strong upper storm system is located over southern California and southwest Arizona this morning.  The system will continue to dig southeastward into northwest Mexico by daybreak on Tuesday… then slide eastward toward the Big Bend area of Texas by Wednesday morning.  By Thursday morning, the strong, compact system will be located over Oklahoma moving quickly northeastward.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to break out in Texas during the morning hours of Tuesday.  This activity will spread northward into Oklahoma during the early morning hours of Wednesday… and across all of the state by late in the day.  Sufficient moisture and lifting will likely lead to a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms over southern Oklahoma.  As the system rapidly ejects northeastward, areas of central and northern Oklahoma will be seeing precipitation for a shorter duration.  While beneficial rainfall is likely to fall across all of the state… amounts will be greater in the south with lower totals expected the farther north you go.

In addition to the rain, elevated instability will lead to thunder… generally from I-40 south.  These embedded thunderstorms will locally enhance rainfall amounts.
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In somewhat of a surprise for early January, the air mass will not be sufficiently cold enough for accumulating snow out of this system.  The temperature profile even in the coldest core of the low will be warming as the system ejects northeast.