A little of this, a little of that…

The roller coaster month of October continues.  After starting out the month setting numerous low record temperatures, we are rolling through an extended period of setting high record temperatures.  After the first couple of weeks of the month, it appeared that we would have one of the coolest October’s ever.  Now, after having several days where the average temperature has been as much as 20 degrees above normal, the average temperature is slightly above normal for the month.  This will all come to a sudden halt Thursday when a strong cold front blasts through the state.  Not only will we see temperatures dropping below normal, but it will not be out of the question to be setting record lows again this weekend.  Unfortunately, this system approaching from the northwest will not be bringing significant rainfall.

On the topic of rainfall, we are currently on pace to be the driest year of record here in Okarche.  The current total stands at 21.25 inches.  Our October total has only been 0.75 of an inch, and with little in the way of significant rainfall seen during the next week, it is doubtful we will add much to that.  This will mean that October will be the 5th consecutive month where we have had below normal precipitation.  The record for the least precipitation in a year in Okarche is 25.60 inches set in 2001. Given the fact that November and December are typically two of our four driest months, the prospects don’t look good for making up the 4.35 inches to keep this from being a record breaking year.

The bad news goes further.  The latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show better than average chances at above normal temperatures for nearly every month until the start of 2014!  Only a couple of months during that same period even hint at above normal precipitation.  If these outlooks hold true, a massive area of severe drought over the Plains could continue for at least another year.

On the tropical weather front, Sandy is very nearly a hurricane this morning about 120 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.  The storm is moving to the north and will cross over eastern Cuba before ending up in the Bahamas early on Thursday.  The storm, or hurricane depending on its strength, will wobble dangerously close to the Florida east coast before turning and accelerating northeastward while losing tropical characteristics.   Before the turn, large ocean swells, and tropical storm force winds are likely to batter portions of Florida.  Currently, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ocean Reef… Florida Upper Keys from Ocean Reef to Craig Key… and Florida Bay.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of east-central Florida later this morning.
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The latest guess on Halloween weather in Okarche points toward mild, but unsettled conditions with a chance of showers and gusty winds.

The forecast map below is for daybreak Thursday showing the strong cold front moving through the state, and “Sandy” pushing toward the central Bahamas.