Tropical Storm Isaac – 1 am – Sunday, August 26

I am starting to believe that Isaac is going to be a complete pain in the butt for forecasters.  I’ll start with what it is now.  Located about 65 miles northeast of Camaguey, Cuba, the storm is moving to the northwest and at a fairly solid rate of 17 mph.  The direction has shifted westward just a bit over the last 12 hours.  *Make note of that…    Maximum winds are near 60 mph and the pressure has fallen once again to 997 mb.  There have been some blowups of convection over water around the storm which is hugging the Cuba coast, but otherwise, the system continues to look quite ragged. 

I believe that for no other reason than continuity sake the National Hurricane Center is holding watches and warnings pretty much as is.  They include the hurricane warning for the Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas.  A hurricane warning for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Ocean Reef… and Florida Bay.  A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida east coast from Golden Beach southward to Ocean Reef.  A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet southward to Ocean Reef… Lake Okeechobee… and the Florida west coast from north of Bonita Beach to Tarpon Springs… including Tampa Bay.  A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida east coast north of Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach and the west coast and panhandle north of Tarpon Springs to Indian Pass. 

Isaac is close enough to hurricane strength that people in the hurricane warning area should continue to make preparations to protect life and property.  Conditions preventing safe preparations will be deteriorating over the next 12 hours as the outer bands of Isaac approach. 
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As far as what to do with Isaac in the future.  Guidance has made a marked shift to the west and is tightly clustered through 36 hours taking the storm center well into the Gulf of Mexico.  While this forecast takes the storm center well to the southwest of Tampa Bay, outer bands will still likely affect a lot of southern and western Florida.  People should continue to heed all watches and warnings for their local area.  Of greater interest now becomes the longer term portion of the forecast.  The eastern moving U.S. trough which was supposed to have an impact on the subtropical ridge steering Isaac is showing signs of staying far enough north and quick enough moving to not pick up the storm.  Instead, numerous solutions of recent guidance suggest the storm will take a straight as an arrow approach through the Gulf of Mexico with an eventual landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River.  This change in solution is so quick and so dramatic that caution is required before jumping all in with it.  In fact, the National Hurricane Center continues to have its current forecast of landfall well east of the guidance consensus – near the western end of the Florida Panhandle.  I do believe that people now living all the way around to the southern coast of Louisiana should start to keep up daily with the progress of Isaac. 

Shear is expected to weaken over Isaac during the next 72 hours and most models suggest that the storm will be a solid Cat 1 storm over the northern Gulf.  How Isaac fares moving away from Cuba and the next 24 hours of model data will be extremely important in determining the final strength and location of landfall.