Severe storms likely in Oklahoma Monday/Tuesday (2nd/3rd).

An interesting severe weather day appears to be in store for the central and southern Plains on Monday (2nd). A strong upper storm system is moving through the southwest U.S. and will approach the Plains on Monday afternoon. While the system will weaken somewhat, it still looks to be strong enough to cause widespread severe weather.

A very unstable atmosphere will be in place as cold mid-level temperatures begin to overspread deep moisture southeast of a cold front and east of a dryline. By late afternoon, the surface low in association with the storm will be located over the northern Texas panhandle. The dryline will have advanced into extreme western Oklahoma.

Initially, severe thunderstorms are likely to rapidly develop along the cold front in Kansas and near the surface low. Very large hail will be possible with some of the storms in Kansas, while tornadoes will be an added threat with lower topped storms near the surface low. By late afternoon, convergence along the dryline, afternoon heating, and gradually increasing lifting associated with the approaching upper storm will result in thunderstorm development along the dryline.

Given the degree of instability, explosive development is possible along the dryline. Shear profiles will support rotating storms with all facets of severe weather. Hail to the size of baseballs or larger will be possible with any sustained supercell storm, and tornadoes will be possible.
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There are questions about the wind profiles near and east of the dryline which could cause some messy storm interactions… possibly limiting the severe weather threat. However, better shear profiles are likely to be in place near or just after 6 P.M. and if organized supercell storms are able to take advantage – the tornado threat will increase.

As the main storm system begins to move farther east, severe thunderstorms may redevelop from southern Kansas to northern Texas during the day Tuesday. Severe threats will be similar to Monday with very large hail and a couple of tornadoes possible.