Active weather pattern returning to the state for a few days…

After a couple of weeks avoiding the record books, the warm air has finally started making a dent.  On March 13th, the high temperature of 83 degrees broke the old record of 82 degrees set in 1996 and 2008.  On the 14th, the high low temperature record was set at 61 degrees.  The previous record was 55 degrees set in 2007.  And, on the 15th, the high low temperature record was set at 62 degrees.  This breaks the old record of 49 degrees set in 1995 and 2000.  These temperatures are only coming within a couple of degrees of breaking all time March records.

 

Through the first 15 days of March, the average temperature has been 56.5 degrees.  If this were to hold, it would be the second warmest March of record.  Only two days have seen temperatures below normal, and both of them have only been one degree below.  In a typical year, there would still be about an 88 percent chance of a freeze following March 16th.  By the end of the month, the chance at another freeze is still around 71 percent. However, this has been a far from typical winter and with no freezing weather seen on the latest medium range models, we are ready to kick the gardening into full gear.  The green light has been given to plant just about anything starting this weekend and hopefully we can get in one of the longest growing seasons we have seen around here in quite some time.

 

Now that we have the climo part of the discussion out of the way, let’s look at the potential for an active and wet weather pattern setting up which will likely include some of the first significant severe weather events for the year in Oklahoma.

 

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After a lull in the action on Saturday – Sunday looks to be setting up for a significant round of severe weather along the dryline.  The dryline will be far enough west to keep the most dangerous storms in western Oklahoma.  By late afternoon on Sunday, a very strong upper storm system will be moving through the southwest U.S.  Stronger mid level winds will be spreading over the high Plains creating an environment very favorable for organized severe storms – including supercells with the potential of producing all facets of severe weather.  The dryline will not change position much during the afternoon and extend from southeast South Dakota to western Kansas to southwest Texas.  Storms will move to the north and northeast and make it into western Oklahoma near or just before sunset.

 

While the severe weather threat will start to lessen after dark, a complex of storms producing very heavy rain will continue to work toward central Oklahoma.  The morning rush hour could be a soggy one in Oklahoma City.  After the heavy rain works through, another round of severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and eastern Oklahoma.  This threat is conditional on getting enough surface heating after the early storms to develop pockets of higher instability.  The first half of the upcoming week stands to be showery as moisture wraps around the strong upper low which will become nearly stationary over Oklahoma.  The heaviest rain by Tuesday/Wednesday will have pushed into far eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.