Tropics waking up… still hot in Oklahoma…

A strong tropical disturbance is located early this morning about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  This system is showing just about every sign of wanting to intensify, and I would not be surprised to see at least a tropical depression if not a tropical storm form during the day Saturday.  Environmental conditions are becoming more and more favorable for this system to eventually become a hurricane.  The problem is with the forecast guidance tracks.  The general consensus is to bring the system through the Antilles and into the northeast Caribbean Sea.  This will be its best chance to intensify before it starts to interact with mountainous areas of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba.  If the system does track over those areas, it will be hard to believe that it would have much punch left for Florida.  However, it doesn’t take much of a wobble to get the center back over open water and the GFS solution of bringing a strong hurricane into Florida by Friday morning is not out of the question.  Her name would be Irene.

If Irene does manage to become a force rolling up the east coast… one thing that could benefit us would be high pressure over the Great Lakes getting squeezed southwestward into the southern plains.  A chance of precipitation and near or below normal temperatures would likely follow.

All of this is a long way off with a lot of specific solutions needing to happen before we get our cooler air… but it is definitely something to watch during the coming week.
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By the way, the high in Okarche yesterday was 106 degrees which tied the record previously set in 2000.  This is the 52nd day of 2011 with 100 degree or greater temperatures.

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