Severe thunderstorms likely Sunday – March 26

The weather will undergo some dramatic changes today.  We are starting cool – in some cases, cold – across Oklahoma at daybreak this Sunday morning.  The low temperature in Okarche was 38 degrees.  A small but strong storm system is moving quickly toward the state.  In response, surface low pressure will be organizing over the panhandles and move into northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon.  Warm and moist air / currently residing across central Texas / will move rapidly northward through the afternoon hours.  By mid-afternoon, the atmosphere over central and eastern Oklahoma will become quite unstable.  A dryline will begin pushing eastward across western Oklahoma, and this feature will provide a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon.  Given the degree of instability and very strong wind shear profiles, the storms will have the potential to organize into supercells with all facets of severe weather possible.  At the current time, very large hail will be the primary threat.  However, if sufficient low level moisture returns into the state, there will also be the threat of a few tornadoes.  Two areas appear most capable of seeing a tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening.  One is across northwest Oklahoma – near the warm front just to the east of the surface low.  The second area is from roughly the Oklahoma City area southward along and either side of the I-35 corridor where moisture is likely to be deeper.

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Don’t let the calm and cool weather this morning cause you to drop your guard.  Stay tuned to weather information through the day and be prepared to act should severe thunderstorms approach.

March 26, 2017 – 11z

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