Hurricane Matthew (9 pm / Sun, Oct 2, 2016)

Hurricane Matthew is a compact but powerful category 4 storm this evening.  The hurricane is located about 265 miles south southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and is moving to the northwest at  5 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph, and the minimum pressure is remaining around 945 mb.
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Through Tuesday, Matthew is expected to move slowly north northwest, resulting in significant impacts to portions of Cuba and Haiti.  By late Tuesday and early Wednesday, the storm will be affecting the central and southern Bahamas.  It is much too early to tell, but not out of the question if and to what degree Matthew could have on the east coast late in the week and next weekend.

October 2, 2016 – 12z

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Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday, October 4, 2016

A strong upper storm system will be moving across the Plains late Monday and Tuesday.  Surface low pressure will be organizing over northwest Oklahoma, and a dryline will extend southward across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas.  Early morning thunderstorms are expected to form from western Kansas to western Texas as low level moisture increases on gusty south winds.  These storms may be marginally severe as they spread eastward to central Kansas and central Oklahoma by late morning.  Behind the initial wave of storms, the atmosphere is expected to become quite unstable by mid to late afternoon.  Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop near the surface front and dryline.  Given the strength of deep layer shear and instability, these storms will have the potential to rapidly become severe.  Supercells with damaging winds and large hail will be possible.  In addition, conditions through the lowest levels of the atmosphere are expected to become favorable for the development of a few tornadoes.  The most likely area to experience severe weather will extend from northeast Kansas to north central Oklahoma.  More isolated storms will be possible farther to the south to southwest Oklahoma.

There are some uncertainties with regard to how widespread severe weather will be in Oklahoma, but the potential does exist for a few significant severe weather events.  Residents are advised to review severe weather safety rules and stay aware through the afternoon and evening hours.
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One of the largest tornado outbreaks of record (26 tornadoes) in Oklahoma occurred on October 4, 1998:

http://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19981004-tornadotable