Published: 9 AM – Friday – September 30, 2016
The weather should become much more interesting during the first week of October.
… Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Tuesday / October 4th …
A strong upper system will be making its way across the Western U.S. and the Rockies by late weekend and early next week. Model data has been remarkably consistent with regard to this system, but there have been day to day changes in the exact track, timing and strength. Despite this, confidence is high that as strong southwest flow spreads across the Plains, deep low pressure will organize over the Central and Northern High Plains by Tuesday morning. A narrow strip of moist and unstable air will spread northward in advance of a cold front and dryline. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near these surface features by early to mid afternoon. Given the degree of instability and shear, severe storms will be possible. The most likely area to see severe weather lies across western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and parts of northwest Texas. It is too early to determine storm mode and resulting hazards.
… Hurricane Matthew …
Hurricane Matthew underwent a period of rapid intensification about 520 miles east southeast of Kingston, Jamaica overnight. Maximum sustained winds are now over 100 mph, and the pressure has dropped to 971 mb. Some further intensification is possible over the next 1 to 3 days. The hurricane is expected to track west or west southwest through Saturday morning, and then turn toward the northwest and approach Jamaica by early Monday. After Monday, model data begins to diverge as the storm tracks toward the Bahamas. The western side of the track guidance suggests that there will be at least a minimal threat to Florida, and eventually the Carolina’s from Wednesday through Saturday, but any further shift to the west would bring a greater threat.
Not a radar that I get to use very often. The eye of Matthew is clearly visible from weather radar at Curacao. Curacao is a small island country just north of Venezuela.
