The atmosphere across the main body of Oklahoma remains moist and will become very unstable this afternoon. There will be an increasing low level jet by evening and moderate west southwest flow will continue to spread across the Plains in the mid-levels.
By late afternoon, thunderstorms are once again expected to develop near an outflow boundary across southern Kansas, and near the western edge of the moist plume from southwest Kansas southward near the Oklahoma/Texas border. In rinse and repeat fashion, favorable shear and instability will lead to some of these storms being severe and supercell storms with all hazards possible.
At the current time, it appears that the greatest risk of supercell storms will be centered over far northwest Oklahoma and adjacent areas of Texas and Kansas.
A dryline will once again be located from western Kansas to western Texas this afternoon. The atmosphere east of the dryline is expected to become very unstable, with moderately strong low and deep layer shear. The forecast today is made somewhat complicated by an outflow boundary that will extend from the eastern Texas Panhandle to near the Red River. Ultimately, this boundary’s position this afternoon will determine the area of greatest risk. At the current time, it is expected that the boundary will intersect the dryline somewhere over the Texas Panhandle near I-40.
Rapid thunderstorm development will begin near the dryline by late afternoon. Given the strength of the instability and shear, a quick evolution to supercell storms is likely. There may very well be several mergers and splitting storms resulting in messy modes of storms, but very large hail and a few tornadoes are still likely. In Oklahoma, the greatest risk will be southwest of a line from Woodward to Frederick.