Severe thunderstorms possible Friday

The basics are fairly straight forward this evening.  An upper low is located just west of the Four Corners, and it will be moving to south central or southeast Colorado on Friday.  A strong and diffluent mid level jet with H5 winds in excess of 70 knots will extend from far southwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma.   Surface low pressure will be deepening, moisture will be returning and there will be thunderstorms.  The details are much more complex and the forecast is a complicated one.
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At Midnight, severe thunderstorms are occurring over the western end of the Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest corner of the Texas Panhandle.  More widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop during the overnight hours, advancing eastward, reaching western Oklahoma just prior to daybreak on Friday.  Also, more isolated thunderstorms are likely to form in developing warm air advection over south central and southeast Oklahoma.  Any of these storms will have the potential to be severe with marginally severe hail and wind.   How the precipitation evolves through the morning and early afternoon hours is a big question which has a significant impact on the severe potential during the afternoon and evening.  Model guidance is all over the place with respect to this.  The latest runs of the HRRR indicate that the most widespread thunderstorm activity will stay across northern Oklahoma, and that the southern half of the state will see atmosphere recovery during the afternoon.  If this occurs, the atmosphere south of I-40 would become prime for severe thunderstorms with moderately strong low and deep layer shear and high instability.  Supercell storms with all facets of severe weather would be possible.  Other model guidance suggest more widespread thunderstorm activity Friday morning – farther south – effectively reducing the severe risk and shoving it south of the Red River.  Some other outlying model groups suggest that atmosphere recovery could occur as far north as the Kansas border.  The bottom line is that we won’t know until late morning which camp of model guidance is likely to be correct.  Most areas of the state will have the potential for severe thunderstorms on Friday.  The area that has the greatest potential for seeing significant severe weather events / including tornadoes / is across southwest and south central Oklahoma.

April 28, 2016 – 12z

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