March 31, 2016 – 12z

Deep low pressure is found over Iowa and southern Lake Michigan this morning.  A cold front extends from the low to south Texas.  Moist and warm air is moving north ahead of the front and widespread showers and thunderstorms extend from the Lower Mississippi Valley northward to the Great Lakes.  Strong to severe thunderstorms are occurring over southern Mississippi and Alabama, as well as in Arkansas.  Rain is scattered from New England to the Central and Northern Plains.  A mix of rain and snow is occurring over the Northern and Central Rockies.

Tornado in Tulsa – March 30, 2016

A large tornado has been moving across the north side of Tulsa and approaching Owasso.  Several radar volume scans have shown evidence of a tight and strong area of rotation with debris evident.  Below are a couple of images from Channel 6 in Tulsa.

000
NOUS44 KTSA 010305
PNSTSA
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011515-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...NWS Damage Survey for Northeastern Oklahoma March 30th
Tornadoes...

.Overview...A supercell thunderstorm produced two damaging tornadoes
in northeastern Oklahoma the evening of March 30, 2016. The damage
areas were assessed by NWS Tulsa meteorologists today and their
findings follow.

.Tulsa/Owasso/Verdigris Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:    110-120 MPH
Path Length /Statute/:  20 MILES
Path Width /Maximum/:   1000 YARDS
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               4

Start Date:             March 30 2016
Start Time: 713 PM CDT
Start Location: 10 S Skiatook / Osage County / OK
Start Lat/Lon:          36.2151 / -96.0151

End Date:               March 30 2016
End Time:               755 PM CDT
End Location:           2 N Verdigris / Rogers County / OK
End Lat/Lon:            36.2765 / -95.6680

Survey Summary: This tornado developed about 2.5 miles southwest of
Turley where it quickly began producing damage supportive of 95 to
105 mph wind. Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted, a home
sustained major damage to the roof, a horse trailer was thrown about
50 yards into a lake, and barns were destroyed in far southeastern
Osage County.

The tornado moved generally east across the northern portion of the
City of Tulsa. It moved roughly along E 46th St N...damaging numerous
homes and businesses, snapping or uprooting numerous trees, and
snapping numerous power poles west of Highway 75. The tornado moved
east-northeast across Mohawk Park where it snapped and uprooted
numerous trees. Several industrial metal buildings were significantly
damaged north-northeast of the Tulsa International Airport on N Mingo
Road. The tornado then crossed Highway 169 just south of the Bird
Creek Bridge where it destroyed several barns and snapped numerous
trees along E 56th St N before moving into Rogers County.

From the Rogers County line at E 56th St N, the tornado moved east-
northeast passing across the northern portion of the Patriot Golf
Club and into Stone Canyon subdivisions. Numerous homes were damaged
in this area. Several homes under construction were destroyed. The
tornado moved across Highway 266 where it destroyed a business,
damaged a number of homes, and snapped or uprooted numerous trees.
Barns were destroyed in this area. This tornado dissipated north of
Verdigris.

.Claremore Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:    120-130 MPH
Path Length /Statute/:  6.4 MILES
Path Width /Maximum/:   550 YARDS
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             March 30 2016
Start Time: 800 PM CDT
Start Location: 2.3 SW Claremore / Rogers County / OK
Start Lat/Lon:          36.2840 / -95.6384

End Date:               MARCH 30 2016
End Time:               813 PM CDT
End Location:           4.5 E Claremore / Rogers County / OK
End Lat/Lon:            36.3126 / -95.5327

Survey Summary: Based on radar data and the ground survey today, the
supercell appears to have cycled north of Verdigris where the first
tornado dissipated and a second developed southwest of Claremore.
Numerous homes were damaged east of Highway 66 and west of I-44.
Some of the worst damage in this path occurred in a housing area near
Highway 88 where several homes received severe damage to their roofs
and wall structures. The tornado moved east along the E 500 Road
where trees were snapped and uprooted, homes were damaged, and barns
were destroyed. The tornado then moved east-northeast toward Will
Rogers Downs on Highway 20, where it turned sharply to the northeast
and dissipated after damaging several large barns.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories.

EF0...Weak......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...Weak......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...Strong....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...Strong....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...Violent...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...Violent...>200 MPH

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

EJC/SFP/BH

March 30, 2016 – 12z

Deep low pressure is moving across Nebraska this morning.  A wide plume of moist and warm air has been moving northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico into Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms have been developing across Oklahoma and north Texas.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms are also occurring from Iowa northward into Wisconsin and Minnesota.  On the cold side of the system, heavy snow is falling across Wyoming and scattered snow extends westward into Idaho and Nevada.

March 29, 2016 – 12z

Deep low pressure is affecting New England, high pressure covers much of the Eastern U.S., and low pressure covers much of the Western U.S.  Showers and thunderstorms are scattered across areas of higher moisture along the Gulf Coast.  Thunderstorms producing some hail have formed in an area of strong warm air advection over Nebraska.  Most of the Western U.S. with the exception of the Southern Rockies and west coast is seeing scattered areas of rain and snow.  The most widespread precipitation extends from Nevada northeastward into Wyoming.

Severe thunderstorms possible across eastern Oklahoma / Wed, March 30, 2016

A powerful storm system will be moving across the Plains on Wednesday.  Surface low pressure will be tracking near the Kansas/Nebraska border, and a dryline will be moving east across Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas.  In advance of the dryline, a steady increase in low level moisture is expected over the next 24 hours.  The atmosphere will gradually become more unstable, while low and deep layer shear also increases.  The combination will be supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development, with some of the storms likely to be severe.

It currently appears that morning storms will form over northern Texas, with some of this activity spreading into at least south central and southeast Oklahoma.  Some model data suggests storms could make it into central Oklahoma.  This early round will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds.  The tornado threat would be low, but not zero.

How things evolve into the afternoon becomes much more complex, and almost totally dependent on what occurs during the morning hours.  It seems likely that there will be at least some window of opportunity for the redevelopment of supercell thunderstorms along the dryline during the afternoon.  These storms would be capable of producing all severe weather hazards.  The exact threat area, coverage, and degree of threat isn’t going to become evident until late morning at the earliest, and may not become apparent until afternoon.  The greatest risk lies along and east of I-35.

March 28, 2016 – 12z

A strong storm system is moving northeast across the Northeast U.S. generating widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Most of the remainder of the Central and Eastern U.S. is dry this morning.  Cold air has filtered south with sub-32 degree air making it into Oklahoma and Arkansas.

The west is unsettled with areas of rain and snow scattered from the Northern Rockies to the Central Great Basin and California.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Cold start to the week / Becoming warmer with high fire danger and thunderstorm chances…

Attention is now turning to a strong upper system diving south along the west coast this Sunday evening.  By Monday afternoon, a closed low will be near Reno, Nevada.  Upper flow will be increasing out of the southwest across the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday as the system moves to western Utah.  By daybreak on Wednesday, a lead wave is forecast to eject northeast across Colorado, and this is a scenario that has been supported in several model runs.  The main portion of the upper low will still be back near Las Vegas, Nevada with a strong jet segment extending from the Southwest U.S. to the Central and Southern High Plains.  Recent model trends have been stronger with the overall storm system, and have been trending ever so slightly slower with its movement into the Plains.  This could eventually have an impact on the weather in the state on Wednesday.

Pressures will be falling over the High Plains on Monday and winds across Oklahoma will be increasing out of the south.  By Tuesday, deep low pressure will be found near the northeast corner of Colorado, and winds will increase further.  Increasing moisture and lift from the approaching system on Wednesday will allow for morning showers and thunderstorms to form across the main body of Oklahoma.  By late morning and early afternoon, a dryline will be moving east toward the I-35 corridor.  This boundary will provide a focus for the redevelopment of afternoon and evening thunderstorms – some of which would be severe.  Currently, it appears that the threat would be over the eastern half of the state, but a slightly slower moving system would introduce a threat for severe thunderstorms over central Oklahoma as well.  A cold front will follow, reaching the eastern part of the state by Midnight on Thursday.

…Hazards…

Monday… Fire danger will become elevated across western Oklahoma and the Panhandle during the afternoon.  South winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph over the Panhandle and northwest.
Tuesday… High fire danger will exist west of the dryline over the Panhandle.  South winds will gust to between 40 and 50 mph over western Oklahoma and the Panhandle.
Wednesday… Very high to extreme fire danger is likely west of a dryline that will be pushing into central Oklahoma during the afternoon.  Morning thunderstorms will have the potential to produce large hail across southern and eastern Oklahoma.  By afternoon, a supercell thunderstorm risk will develop along and east of the dryline with all facets of severe weather possible.  Southwest winds will gust to between 40 and 50 mph across the state to the west of the dryline.  By late afternoon and evening, strong northwest winds will be developing behind a cold front that will start to move southeast across the state.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 32 Observed: 33
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 10 to 20 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 68 Observed: 71
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 46 Observed: 47
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southeast 10 to 20 mph, becoming south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 70 Observed: 73
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Low: 57 Observed: 61
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
High: 80 Observed: 84
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 20%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph, becoming northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.