Severe thunderstorms possible this evening

3:29 pm CST Monday February 29 2016

The latest surface map shows low pressure near the Kansas / Nebraska border with a trough extending southwest to eastern New Mexico.  A weak front that is becoming diffuse lies east / west near the Red River.  Low level moisture with dew point temperatures in the 50′s and 60′s are located near and south of this boundary.

Water vapor loops show a strong short wave trough diving southeast across the Central Rockies.  In advance of this trough, an increasing low level jet will become established across the state and the higher moisture located over Texas will be transported north during the evening and overnight hours.

As the atmosphere becomes more moist and unstable this evening, and as lift associated with the approaching wave begins to overspread the area, thunderstorms are expected to form over west central and northwest Oklahoma.  These storms will move east southeastward across central Oklahoma late this evening and early Tuesday morning.

There will be sufficient shear and instability to support vigorous updrafts and some of the storms are likely to become severe.  A few instances of damaging winds will be possible, but the primary threat with storms tonight will be hail, with some of the higher end reports being near the size of golfballs.

February 29, 2016 – 12z

The weather map this morning shows a deep area of low pressure located near western Maine.  A weak cold front extends southwestward across the Appalachians to the Southern Plains.  South of this boundary over Texas, low level moisture has been gradually increasing.

From another low pressure over Lake Superior, an arctic cold front extends southwest to southern South Dakota and then northwest to northwest Montana.  Very cold air is located behind this front with sub-zero temperatures into North Dakota and Minnesota, and temperatures as cold as 35 degrees below zero across southern Canada.

Rain is scattered from the Central Appalachians to New York, where snow then becomes scattered to northern Maine.  A scattered mix of snow and rain extends from the Dakotas westward to northern Utah, Idaho and Montana.  Rain and snow is also moving onshore the Pacific Northwest.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Showers and thunderstorms with severe weather possible late Monday into Tuesday morning…

A strong upper wave is moving across the Pacific Northwest this Sunday evening.  The feature will be moving southeast across Wyoming on Monday afternoon with an associated 80 knot H5 jet extending from southeast Washington to northern Colorado.  The wave will be moving across the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday, quickly exiting the area.  Behind it is another short wave trough that will be taking nearly the same path and will be approaching Oklahoma by late on Wednesday.

In advance of the lead wave, a plume of moist air with precipitable water values well over an inch will spread across Oklahoma beginning early on Monday. Meanwhile, arctic air will begin to move quickly southward across the Northern Plains and Midwest.  By late Monday afternoon, most all of Oklahoma will still be in the warm sector as low pressure organizes over southwest Kansas, providing a brief anchor for the western end of the cold front.  By evening, the front will begin to move quickly southeastward and lifting will begin to increase as the upper wave approaches.  Showers and thunderstorms should begin developing around or just after sunset from the eastern Texas Panhandle to southeast Kansas.  These storms will move quickly eastward across the state during the overnight hours, ending over southeast Oklahoma by Tuesday morning.

The main surge of arctic air will stay northeast of Oklahoma.  Still, cooler and breezy conditions are expected for the first half of Tuesday.  By Wednesday morning, south winds will be increasing and warmer air will spread across the state in advance of the next approaching wave.  While a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late on Wednesday, moisture will be lacking at that time and no organized area of precipitation is expected through Midnight on Thursday.

…Hazards…

Monday… While not a textbook setup, there will be sufficient moisture, lift, instability and shear for some of the thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning to become severe.  The primary threat will be large hail.
Tuesday… (See Monday) In addition… winds behind the cold front passing across the state will be strong out of the north with gusts from 35 to 45 mph possible.
Wednesday… No significant weather related hazards expected.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 39 Observed: 38
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light, becoming south 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
High: 73 Observed: 76
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 60%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 15%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 2%
Observed: 0.01
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Low: 43 Observed: 38
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 60%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 40%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 15%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 2%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph, becoming north 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 58 Observed: 59
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming light.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low:32 Observed: 36
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph, becoming south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 70 Observed: 69
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 30%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

February 28, 2016 – 12z

Areas of precipitation are few and far between this morning.  Rain and snow is falling over parts of Oregon, Washington and eastern South Dakota.  Light rain and snow is also scattered from northern New York to northern Maine.

Temperatures across most of the U.S. are seasonably mild.  Deep low pressure is located over southern Minnesota, and a front extends eastward from the low to New England.  It is cold north of this front, but the coldest air / -20 to -31 degrees / is held up well into Canada.

There are also cold spots over the Southeast U.S. with temperatures below freezing from West Virginia to the Florida Panhandle.

February 27, 2016 – 12z

Rain / with some snow in higher elevations / is scattered across the Pacific Northwest, western Montana and Idaho this morning.  There have even been a few thunderstorms over western Idaho.  The remainder of the country is precipitation free.

Cold high pressure has settled into southern Alabama and freezing temperatures have reached into central Florida.  The rest of the country is seeing morning temperatures at or even slightly above seasonal average.

High fire danger Saturday

A strong upper trough will move east across the Central Plains on Saturday.  In response, low pressure will be deepening over South Dakota, and a trough will extend from the low southwestward to near the Texas/New Mexico border.   Combined with high pressure near the Florida Panhandle, a tightening pressure gradient will increase winds out of the southwest during the day.  Most of the state will be seeing winds gust to between 30 and 35 mph, while 40 mph gusts appear likely over the northwest and Panhandle.

It will remain dry across Oklahoma, and afternoon humidity will drop to near 30 percent across the northwest 2/3′s of the state, and to 20 percent or lower over the northwest and Panhandle.  The combination of dry vegetation, gusty winds and low humidity will result in fire danger becoming high across most of Oklahoma, and critical levels will be reached over the northwest and Panhandle.

February 26, 2016 – 12z

It’s a very quiet morning weatherwise across the U.S.  The only precipitation being observed is light snow in Maine and some lake effect snow across western New York.

It is a fairly cold morning.  Florida is the only state on the weather map that does not have a temperature at or below 32 degrees.

February 25, 2016 – 12z

Deep low pressure is located over northern New York this morning.  While the primary cold front has mostly moved east into the Atlantic, a secondary surge of cool air is progressing southeast across the Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains.

The western 2/3′s of the country are under the influence of high pressure with seasonal air and very little precipitation.

It is windy over the Northeast U.S. and rain and snow extend from the Chicago area east and northeast into New England.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Dry with a warming trend through the weekend…

A deep upper trough is located over the Eastern U.S. this Wednesday evening.  In its wake, a strong wave is dropping southward across the Plains in north northwest flow.  This feature will move into the base of the long wave trough and leave northwest flow across the Plains on Friday.  Another couple of minor waves will pass before short wave ridging tries to build across the Central and Southern Plains on Saturday.  This will be short-lived as a trough moving onshore over the Western U.S. will move across the Central Plains on Sunday.

The atmosphere will be quite dry in the wake of the Eastern U.S. system.  The next front to move across will do so on Sunday.  By then, enough moisture return could lead to scattered showers over eastern Oklahoma.

…Hazards…

Thursday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Friday… No significant weather related hazards expected.
Saturday… Gusty southwest winds and dry vegetation will lead to high fire danger across the Panhandle and at least northwest Oklahoma.  Elevated fire weather concerns may spread into central Oklahoma as well.  Southwest winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph across the main body of the state during the late afternoon and evening.
Sunday… Southwest winds will gust to between 35 and 40 mph across the main body of the state during the morning hours.  By afternoon, 40 mph wind gusts from the north will be possible over the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 33 Observed: 27
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 54 Observed: 49
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 10 to 20 mph, becoming light.

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 29 Observed: 25
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph, becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Friday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 61 Observed: 62
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 33 Observed: 35
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 72 Observed: 76
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 50 Observed: 50
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 75 Observed: 72
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 10 to 20 mph.

February 25, 2016 – 0z

Deep low pressure is located over Ohio and a sweeping cold front is pushing off the east coast.  Showers and thunderstorms / many severe / continue this evening over the Mid-Atlantic.  Rain extends northeastward across New England, and trailing storms along the front extend into Florida.  Snow / some quite heavy / is falling across portions of the Great Lakes where spots of blizzard or near-blizzard conditions persist.  The remainder of the country is mostly precipitation free with seasonal temperatures.