Wet December ends wet year

December was the 4th wettest December of record in Okarche.  The total precipitation of 4.00 inches was 270% of average (1.48 inches).

Snowfall for the month was 1.8 inches which was 75% of average (2.4 inches).

A wet November followed by a wet December allowed us to finish 5.95 inches above average for 2015.  The total precipitation ended up at 41.19 inches which is 117% of average (35.24 inches).  2014 finished as the 2nd driest year of record, but 2015 ended up as the 5th wettest.

December 31, 2015 – 12z

The only significant precipitation this morning is a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast U.S.  This rain is located near a stationary front, and weak wave of low pressure centered over South Carolina.

A large sprawling high pressure area / where most temperatures are below freezing / extends from British Columbia to the Mississippi Valley.  Temperatures below zero are scattered from the Great Basin to the Central and Southern Rockies.

Power outage – December 31, 2015 – Midnight

OG&E and their partners have knocked the number of customers out of service down to 9,743 as of Midnight.  This continues to include the entire town of Okarche.

The good news is that Okarche was taken out of the return to service group that was estimated to be between Friday the 1st and Sunday the 3rd – and we have now been added to a group estimating time of return by this evening / December 31st.  With a little luck, we can return to normal by the start of the new year.

 

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Clouds/fog/drizzle will be possible through the weekend / Otherwise quiet…

The polar jet wraps around a broad trough which is located from the southern Canadian prairies to the Central Great Basin this Wednesday evening.  Over the next couple of days, lower heights at the western end of this trough will become detached from the main flow with a high over low arrangement over the Pacific Northwest and California.  Meanwhile, the polar jet will reestablish around a trough centered over the Great Lakes.  Over the weekend, an upper ridge will build from the Plains northwestward into Alberta.

A broad area of surface high pressure will dominate the weather across the middle part of the country through the end of the weekend.  Weak to non-existent lift will prevent significant precipitation.  However, 00z soundings and forecast soundings through Thursday morning show a nearly saturated lowest 1km, and this is likely to result in areas of fog / drizzle / freezing drizzle.  Latest guidance suggests drier air moving into the state from late Thursday to Saturday morning which would help to limit the fog/drizzle production, but there may still be isolated areas over remaining snow/ice pack.  On Sunday, the low level atmosphere moistens again and clouds / fog / drizzle may once again become possible.  Low clouds and fog will make the temperature portion of the forecast challenging.

…Hazards…

Thursday… Morning fog/freezing fog and drizzle will be possible across the western half of the state.  

Friday… No significant weather related hazards expected.

Saturday… No significant weather related hazards expected.

Sunday… Morning fog/freezing fog and drizzle will be possible across northern and western Oklahoma.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with fog and light freezing drizzle possible.
Low: 28 Observed: 30
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 2%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 36 Observed: 33
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy with patchy fog.
Low: 21  Observed: 22
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 5 to 10 mph.

Friday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 40 Observed: 38
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 22 Observed: 28
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 45 Observed: 46
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy with fog possible.
Low: 28 Observed: 27
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 46 Observed: 44
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.

December 31, 2015 – 0z

The only significant precipitation this evening is a large area of showers and thunderstorms located near a front that lies across the Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic.  Lighter winter precipitation extends farther to the north into New England.  The remainder of the country is mostly dry and generally cool.

December 30, 2015 – 12z

The weather map has become a little lazy this morning with only scattered weak high and low pressure areas.  A stationary front extends from southeast Virginia to southeast Louisiana and numerous showers and thunderstorms are located over the Southeast U.S., Southern Appalachians, and Lower Mississippi Valley.  The air remains mild southeast of the front.

Temperatures are above freezing from most of the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic.  The remainder of the country is quite chilly this morning.

Snow is moving across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, and rain/snow is falling over western Nevada and northern California.

December 30, 2015 – 0z

The weather has turned much more quiet this evening.  Showers and a few thunderstorms are located near a front over the Southeast U.S.  Otherwise, precipitation is limited to showers over west Texas, showers over western New York, and scattered rain and snow from the Pacific Northwest to Arizona and Colorado.

Power Outage – December 29, 2015 / 10 pm

Power remains out in Okarche.  OG&E has done a good job getting the outage down to less than 14,000 customers (from 70,000) – but the remaining will be slow to come on as major repairs need to be made to critical power structures.  This isn’t a case of hanging a wire back up on the pole.

We are currently 42 hours into this outage.   OG&E released a restore to power update recently, and Okarche is in a group that is not expected to be restored until Friday evening (72 more hours) at the earliest – and possibly Sunday evening (120 more hours) at the latest.