…Subsiding winds / Rain chances increase on Sunday…
12z GFS and ECMWF solutions through the weekend are nearly identical – the differences show up concerning precipitation chances on Sunday. The powerful storm system that has generated high wind across the state on Wednesday will be moving quickly northeast over the next 24 hours and be found over the western Great Lakes at daybreak on Thursday. Another wave will be moving southeastward across the Northern Plains and these features will phase over the Northeast U.S. on Friday.
The animated forecast 500 mb features look like a conveyor belt with several powerful storms in the progressive flow over the next couple of weeks. The next significant system will be moving across California on Sunday. The effects of this storm won’t be felt in Oklahoma until after the weekend. However, a weaker wave will precede it and be generating lift across Oklahoma on Sunday.
A cold front will be clearing southeast Oklahoma by Midnight Thursday and winds will subside. After a cool start, light winds and mild temperatures are expected statewide during the afternoon.
Friday morning will be the coldest of the upcoming days and scattered areas of frost or freezing temperatures are expected across the northern half of the state. Once again, temperatures will rebound nicely during the afternoon.
South winds will be increasing on Saturday and there will be an increase in high clouds. The two will result in chilly conditions as afternoon highs struggle to get out of the 50’s.
South winds will prevail and moisture will be increasing across the state Sunday morning. Not long after sunrise, rain will be developing near the Red River Valley and across western Texas. This precipitation will spread across Oklahoma during the day, and should be southeast of the I-44 corridor by Midnight on Monday. The GFS is more aggressive with precipitation and has solid chances as far northwest as northwest Oklahoma. The ECMWF keeps most of the precipitation southeast of the Oklahoma City area. At this point, a blend of the solutions seems logical. An isolated thunderstorm will also be possible, mainly across southern Oklahoma.
…Hazards…
Frost will be possible Friday and Saturday morning.
…Okarche Weather…
Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 38 Observed: 37
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 63 Observed: 65
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: North 5 to 15 mph, becoming light.
Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 34 Observed: 33
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Light.
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Friday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 64 Observed: 67
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 34 Observed: 40
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph, becoming south 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Saturday (Noon to Midnight): Becoming mostly cloudy.
High: 62 Observed: 65
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): Mostly cloudy.
Low: 48 Observed: 49
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, becoming south 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
Sunday (Noon to Midnight): Cloudy with rain and possibly a thunderstorm.
High: 56 Observed: 56
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 70%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 10%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.03
Winds: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.