Post ice storm

A couple of images from Okarche.  Yes, another impressive ice storm landed in our laps and we have some extensive tree and power line damage across much of the area.  It appears that all of the six county area saw heavy ice accumulations, with the exception of central and eastern Payne County.  Power in some places may be out for upward of a week or better.

The largest outages from the OG&E system watch page at 9 am on November 30th:

El Reno: 4,872 customers

Enid: 4,343 customers

Yukon: 2,846 customers

Guthrie: 1,518 customers

Piedmont: 1,058 customers

 

 

Rainfall – November 26-30, 2015 (Closed – finally)

I’m including a radar rainfall estimate graphic, but it’s really pretty much worthless.  Estimates by radar performed horribly compared to ground truth measurements.  The high estimates over northwest Canadian County are a result of contamination from wind farms.

This long duration precipitation event produced significant / in some cases record setting / rain, sleet and freezing rain across the entire area.

No attempt was made to quality check the following observations.  Low totals may be a result of incomplete observations.  Most non-CoCoRaHS observing sites use automated rain gauges which do not handle freezing/frozen precipitation well.  In addition, precipitation on a specific day may not be the day that the precipitation fell, but rather melted.

November 30, 2015 – 12z

A stationary front is held up across the Southeast U.S. this Monday morning.  Temperatures below freezing are common from the Northeast U.S. and Great Lakes, west and southwestward across much of the northwest half of the country.  There are pockets of 10 degree air / some places below zero / across New England and across a large area from the Northern Rockies to the Central Great Basin.

Heavy rain with snow at higher elevations has moved onshore across southwest Oregon and northern California.  A large area of rain extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic.  More rain extends from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes.  Winter precipitation / mostly snow / extends from Minnesota and South Dakota southward across portions of Nebraska and Iowa / where some very heavy snow is falling / to western Kansas.

November 30, 2015 – 0z

Low pressure is located near the Mississippi/Alabama border – this along a front that extends from the Mid-Atlantic to Texas.  Cold air has retreated some today, but temperatures below freezing are still common across much of the northwest 1/2 of the country.  Snow is falling in Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota.  A mix of winter precipitation extends from Iowa southwestward into Kansas.  Widespread rain covers much of the Mississippi Valley and this extends east to the Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Weather will remain cool, but begin to dry by Monday afternoon…

An elongated upper low extends from Wyoming to Nevada this Sunday afternoon.  This feature will begin to move eastward over the next 24 hours as a strong mid-level jet segment rotates through the base of the trough.  By mid-week, a trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will drag across the state.  In it’s wake, an upper ridge will be building across the Rockies and High Plains.

As the stronger mid-level winds approach the Plains, low pressure will begin to organize near the Kansas/Oklahoma border Monday morning.  Temperatures will have risen above freezing across most of the state with the exception of the western Panhandle.  The low will be moving northeastward during the afternoon, and a cold front will begin to move southeastward across the state.  The front will be clearing southeast Oklahoma during the early morning hours of Tuesday.

Surface high pressure will build across Oklahoma on Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping temperatures seasonably cool.

Short range model guidance develops rain across western Oklahoma this evening, and spreads it northeastward through Monday morning.  There may be a bit of freezing rain near the Kansas border, but no significant icing is expected.  Tuesday and Wednesday should be precipitation free across the state.

…Hazards…

No significant weather related hazards are expected.
 
…Okarche Weather…
Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): Cloudy with rain.
Low: 33 Observed: 33
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 60%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 5%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.02
Winds: Light, becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph.

Monday (Noon to Midnight): Mostly cloudy.
High: 45 Observed: 43
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 - 10%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Southwest 5 to 15 mph, becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Partly cloudy.
Low: 28  Observed: 30
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): Partly cloudy.
High: 48 Observed: 51
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): Clear.
Low: 28 Observed: 31
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed: 0.00
Winds: Northwest 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): Sunny.
High: 54 Observed:
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.10 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 0.50 – 0%
Chance of precipitation: 1.00 – 0%
Observed:
Winds: Northwest 5 to 15 mph.

November 29, 2015 – 12z

A weak area of low pressure is located near the northwest corner of Alabama this morning.  This wave is along a front that extends from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Lower Mississippi Valley.   Widespread precipitation extends from the Southern Plains northeastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley, and continues eastward to northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic.  Winter precipitation is occurring from southeast Iowa southwestward into parts of Oklahoma and the Texas South Plains.  It is quite cold across north central and northwest parts of the country.  Temperatures below zero are scattered from northern California to Montana.

November 29, 2015 – 0z

A cold front extends from the Mid-Atlantic to south Texas this evening.  Freezing temperatures continue to cover a large area behind the front as cold high pressure settles across northeast Iowa.  Snow is being observed in South Dakota, and a mix of winter precipitation extends from southwest Iowa into southwest Texas.  Overall, intensities have decreased this afternoon.  Widespread rain is found along and either side of the front from Texas northeastward into the Central Appalachians.  Areas ahead of the cold front continue to see temperatures above average.

November 28, 2015 – 12z

The strong cold front that has been pushing southeastward across the country extends from southern New England to near Memphis, Tennessee, to the coastal areas of Texas.  High pressure centers were located over western Montana and southwest Minnesota.  Temperatures across most of the northwest half of the country were below freezing.  A large area from Oregon and Idaho to Wyoming and Montana were seeing temperatures below zero this morning.  Precipitation is still widespread across the Southern Plains, and Mid Mississippi Valley.  An extensive band of winter precipitation extends from Kansas and western Oklahoma to southwest Texas.