September 24, 2015 – 22z

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September 24, 2015 – 12z

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Rainfall – September 23-26, 2015 (Closed)

Light to moderate rain fell across western portions of the area.  The heaviest precipitation occurred across western Blaine County where radar rainfall estimates exceeded 3/4 of an inch.

Showers and thunderstorms on the 25th/26th produced isolated areas of measurable rainfall near and north of Marshall – and from Stillwater to Perkins.

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The highest observed non-CoCoRaHS rainfall occurred at the Perkins mesonet site with 0.59 inch.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Showers and thunderstorms possible across the western half of the state through Saturday morning…

There are considerable small scale differences between the ECMWF and GFS this evening.  In general, the main storm track is expected to stay well north of the Southern Plains through the weekend.  An upper ridge over the Southwest U.S. will move little, but heights are expected to lower some over the next couple of days.  An area of lower pressure is centered over Oklahoma/Arkansas, and there are several small circulations that will be rotating around this feature through Sunday.

A large surface high is centered just north of the Great Lakes this Wednesday evening, and a ridge extends southward into the deep south.  There is a considerable amount of dry low level air associated with this ridge from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley.  This drier air has been advecting westward across the Southern and Central Plains, helping to limit precipitation production from the weaker areas of upper lifting.  Still, showers and thunderstorms have been occurring near upper circulations over Nebraska and northeast New Mexico.  An area of shear between these features has generated showers across the northwest third of Oklahoma over the last 24 hours.

The forecast is a complicated one.  Showers are likely to persist across the northwest third of the state through Thursday morning.  More showers and thunderstorms may approach northwest Oklahoma late on Thursday and early Friday as the circulation over Nebraska drops south.  There will continue to be a few showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature across the western half of the state through Saturday morning.  For now, it appears that the state will be mostly dry from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, with precipitation staying south and east of the state.

The combination of periods of low surface dew point temperatures and clouds/precipitation make the temperature part of the forecast problematic and is viewed with very low confidence.

…Hazards…

No significant weather related hazards.

…Okarche Weather…
Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): 64 (66) / Showers possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20% / 0.10 – 10% (0.00)

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): 86 (84) / Showers possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20% / 0.10 – 10% (0.00)

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Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): 64 (63)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 10% (0.00)

Friday (Noon to Midnight): 86 (90) / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 30% / 0.10 – 20% / 0.50 – 10% (0.00)

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): 64 (60) / Showers possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20% / 0.10 – 10% (0.00)

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): 84 (84)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): 60 (57)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): 86
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0%