Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible through the weekend…

There has been decent model to model and run to run consistency through Sunday morning, before the models begin to diverge Sunday afternoon and evening, lowering confidence during that time period.

A deep trough is located along the west coast this Wednesday evening.  This trough is expected to come out in a couple of pieces with a lead wave passing across the Northern Plains on Thursday morning.  The trailing wave will pass across the Central Plains on Friday.  A low amplitude ridge will move across the Plains on Saturday, before another weak trough arrives on Sunday.

Thursday will be warm to hot across the state with gusty south winds.  An approaching cold front will stay north of Oklahoma.  A few thunderstorms will be possible across far western Oklahoma and the Panhandle near a surface trough/dry line feature.  There is a chance that precipitation could linger through the night and approach central Oklahoma, but the chance of any one place seeing rainfall overnight is small.

A cold front will make a slow push south across northwest and north central Oklahoma on Friday.  It will be quite warm ahead of the front with gusty southwest winds.  This front will provide the focus for showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours – starting first across northwest Oklahoma and then spreading southeastward across the remainder of the state through Saturday morning.  While most places will see at least some precipitation, widespread heavy rainfall is not expected.

Cooler air will filter into the state on Saturday.  Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast for areas along and just north of the Red River throughout the day.

The combination of weak warm air advection and the approach of a weak mid level trough will produce sufficient lift for increasing showers and thunderstorms across most of western and southern Oklahoma from late Saturday to Sunday morning.

…Hazards…

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS: Severe storms with marginally severe hail and damaging winds will be possible on Friday / mainly across northern and western Oklahoma.

…Okarche Weather…
Thursday morning (Midnight to Noon): 71 (73)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)

Thursday (Noon to Midnight): 93 (94)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)

Friday morning (Midnight to Noon): 72 (74) / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 30% / 0.10 – 20% / 0.50 – 2% (0.00)

Friday (Noon to Midnight): 95 (89) / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 70% / 0.10 – 60% / 0.50 – 30% / 1.00 – 5% (0.01)

Saturday morning (Midnight to Noon): 59 (59) / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 50% / 0.10 – 40% / 0.50 – 20% / 1.00 - 2% (0.01)

Saturday (Noon to Midnight): 78 (77)  / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20% / 0.10 – 20% / 0.50 – 5% (0.00)

Sunday morning (Midnight to Noon): 60 (60) / Showers and thunderstorms
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100% / 0.10 - 80% / 0.50 – 40% / 1.00 – 2% (1.07)

Sunday (Noon to Midnight): 78 (72) / Showers and thunderstorms
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100% / 0.10 – 90% / 0.50 – 20% / 1.00 – 2% (0.10)