Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Showers and thunderstorms Monday morning / Windy and warm through mid-week…

A deep trough of low pressure over the northeast part of the country is lifting quickly northeast this Sunday evening.  Another strong trough is dropping southward – approaching the Pacific Northwest.  Through Wednesday, a broad trough will become established over the Western U.S., and this will result in a transition from northwest flow to southwest flow over the Plains.

A weak upper trough and moderate warm air advection is currently moving eastward across the Central and Southern Plains.  These features have resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms / some severe / centered near the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle.  All short term model guidance suggests that showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday morning as the area moves across western and central sections of the state.

With the approach and deepening of the western trough, deep surface low pressure will be organizing on Monday near the South Dakota/Wyoming/Montana border.  A sharp trough will extend southward to the Southern High Plains.  A tight pressure gradient will result in strong and gusty south or southwest winds across Oklahoma.  Precipitation chances will decrease through the day as modest lift overnight begins to wane.

The surface trough will stay to the west of Oklahoma on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this will be a focus for isolated thunderstorms across the Panhandle.  Otherwise, the remainder of Oklahoma should stay dry through Wednesday.  South winds will be gusty each day, and afternoon temperatures will be warm.

…Hazards…

FIRE: The combination of marginally low humidity (20 to 40 percent), dry vegetation, and strong south winds will result in high fire danger across central and western Oklahoma on Monday / primarily in areas that don’t see precipitation overnight .  This danger will persist into Tuesday across the northwest and Panhandle.  Higher dew point temperatures are expected across the main body of the state on Wednesday, but low humidity across the Panhandle will result in another day of elevated fire danger.

WIND: South winds are expected to gust in excess of 40 mph across northwest Oklahoma on Monday.

…Okarche Weather…
Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): 63 (63) / Showers and thunderstorms
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100% / 0.10 – 90% / 0.50 – 40% / 1.00 – 10% (0.08)

Monday (Noon to Midnight): 93 (89) / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20% / 0.10 – 10% (0.00)

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): 69 (63)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): 93 (88)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): 69 (70)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): 91 (91)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% (0.00)