Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Hot, turning cooler by mid-week with showers and thunderstorms possible…

An upper level high pressure area is located over northwest Texas/southwest Oklahoma, and a low pressure area is found over the northeast Gulf of Mexico this Sunday evening. Both of these features will be moving/rebuilding to the west or southwest over the next few days.  Meanwhile, a strong upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies will be moving eastward.  It is this feature that will be impacting the weather across Oklahoma through Wednesday.

On Monday, a surface front over the Central Plains will be held up with the approach of the upper trough.  Oklahoma will stay in the warm sector and once again will see temperatures well above average.  Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Panhandle near a surface trough.  Some of this precipitation will make it into northwest Oklahoma by early Tuesday.  Also on Monday, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across eastern Oklahoma in a hot and humid air mass with weak capping.

As the upper trough swings across the Plains on Tuesday, the cold front will begin to push southeastward across Oklahoma.  Mid-afternoon showers and thunderstorms will organize over northwest Oklahoma and accompany the front into central Oklahoma during the evening, and southern sections of the state during the morning hours of Wednesday.

Wednesday will be dry with temperatures falling toward seasonal average as the state falls under the influence of a surface high pressure ridge extending from the Midwest to the Southern Plains.

…Hazards…
Heat index temperatures are likely to reach or exceed 105 degrees across central and eastern Oklahoma on Monday, and across the southeast half of the state on Tuesday.

There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms across the state on Tuesday.  Storms that develop during the afternoon and evening hours will be capable of producing marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

…Okarche Weather…
Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): 74 (73)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% / 0.10 – 0% / 0.50 – 0% / 1.00 – 0% (0.00)
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Monday (Noon to Midnight): 98 (100)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% / 0.10 – 0% / 0.50 – 0% / 1.00 – 0% (0.00)

Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): 73 (72)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% / 0.10 – 0% / 0.50 – 0% / 1.00 – 0% (0.03)

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): 97 (95) / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100% / 0.10 – 100% / 0.50 – 60% / 1.00 – 10% (0.23)

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): 69 (68) / Showers possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 20% / 0.10 – 10% / 0.50 – 0% / 1.00 – 0% (0.00)

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): 88 (87)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% / 0.10 – 0% / 0.50 – 0% / 1.00 – 0% (0.00)

September 6, 2015 – 13z

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