August 17, 2015 – 3z

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Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Good chance of showers and thunderstorms / Much cooler by Wednesday…

An upper level high pressure area will remain well west of the Southern Plains through mid-week.  A weak upper wave over the mid and lower Mississippi Valley will be moving westward, while a strong upper storm dives southeastward from the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.  The northwest storm system will be cutting off over South Dakota by Tuesday morning.  There should be a phasing of the two waves over the Plains, and the long wave trough will be swinging east of Oklahoma by Midnight on Thursday.

As both upper waves approach the state, there will be a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.  Monday morning, precipitation will be confined to the Panhandle and northwest part of the state.  Models agree that a modest amount of lifting will be occurring across the main body of the state during the day Monday, and this will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms statewide.  Precipitation will linger into Tuesday morning across eastern Oklahoma.  By late Tuesday morning, a seasonably strong cold front will begin moving southward across the Panhandle and northwest part of the state.  This front will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, and the precipitation is expected to continue through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.  From late afternoon into the evening hours of Wednesday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will be occurring along and behind the front as it moves across southern Oklahoma.

Temperatures will be near seasonal average on Monday and Tuesday, but sharply cooler on Wednesday behind the front.  Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday are not likely to get out of the 70’s across central Oklahoma.

…Hazards…

Thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe across the Panhandle on Monday and the northwest half of the state on Tuesday.  Severe weather will also be possible on Wednesday across southeast Oklahoma.  No significant tornado threat is anticipated, but marginally severe hail and wind reports will be possible.

…Okarche Weather…
Monday morning (Midnight to Noon): 64 (68)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% / 0.10 – 0% / 0.50 – 0% / 1.00 – 0% (0.00)

Monday (Noon to Midnight): 93 (94) / Showers and thunderstorms possible
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Tuesday morning (Midnight to Noon): 71 (74) / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100% / 0.10 – 70% / 0.50 – 20% / 1.00 – 2% (0.02)

Tuesday (Noon to Midnight): 93 (95) / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 30% / 0.10 – 30% / 0.50 – 20% / 1.00 – 2% (0.02)

Wednesday morning (Midnight to Noon): 63 (61) / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 100% / 0.10 – 100% / 0.50 –100% / 1.00 – 20(0.76)

Wednesday (Noon to Midnight): 73 (75)
Chance of precipitation: 0.01 – 0% / 0.10 – 0% / 0.50 – 0% / 1.00 – 0% (0.00)

August 16, 2015 – 15z

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