Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Flooding rainfall to start the week…

The upper ridge which has been located over the western part of the country will weaken and shift southward through the middle of the week.  An upper low off the California coast will deepen as it shifts eastward.  In general, weak to moderate southwest mid level flow will be spreading from the southwest U.S. across the Plains.  Waves embedded in the flow will assist in the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms starting by Monday afternoon.

A broad fetch of deep, tropical moisture will continue to flow northward into Oklahoma, and precipitable water is expected to reach over 2.25 inches across the state.  A cold front will be passing across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma on Monday, and this front will become nearly stationary along or southeast of the I-44 corridor on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The front, combined with outflow boundaries from previous storms, and weak upper waves passing across the state, will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  There will be sufficient instability for some of the storms to become severe.  Of greater concern, the deep tropical moisture will allow for intense rainfall rates, and flooding/flash flooding will become a problem.

Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of the front on Monday, but otherwise will be below average due to precipitation and cloud cover.

…Hazards…

The atmosphere across the state on Monday will become very unstable.  Sufficient deep layer shear will exist for a few organized severe thunderstorm events across northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle.  Damaging wind will be the primary threat.  Tuesday will see at least a slight chance of a severe thunderstorm across the main body of the state.

Flooding and flash flooding will be possible across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma from Monday afternoon until Tuesday morning.  Flooding issues will also be possible across the main body of the state from daybreak on Tuesday until daybreak on Wednesday.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 74

Monday: 92 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday morning: 69 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
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Tuesday: 82 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Wednesday morning: 66 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 81 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 100%