Dry June

A few brief showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours of the 29th produced 0.09 of an inch of precipitation in Okarche.

This brings the June total up to 3.10 inches which is 1.78 inches below the average – or 64% of average.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Temperatures will get increasingly hot through Wednesday…

A high amplitude ridge is located over the western U.S. and a deep trough is located over the east.  Moderately strong northwest flow continues across the northern and central Plains.  The ridge to the west will begin to flatten by Wednesday as a strong shortwave trough moves anti-cyclonically across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.

A surface trough over northwest Oklahoma will provide a focus for a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening.  Some light showers may linger across the state through Monday morning.

While a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across most all of the state Monday through Wednesday, the chances for any one spot will remain low.  On Monday and Tuesday, isolated storms will be driven largely by afternoon heating.  By Wednesday evening, a weak front over northwest Oklahoma will be the focus for evening storms.

The main weather story over the next few days will be the increasing heat.  A nearly stationary surface low over Kansas will result in hot west and southwest winds blowing from the southern high plains.  In Okarche, temperatures will begin to flirt with the century mark.  Over much of eastern Oklahoma, air temperatures won’t be that high, but high humidity will result in elevated heat indices.  In general, it will be quite uncomfortable across the state, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

…Hazards…

Heat index readings may exceed 105 degrees across the state on Tuesday and Wednesday.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 70

Monday: 96

Tuesday morning: 74

Tuesday: 100

Wednesday morning: 74

Wednesday: 98 / Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 2%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

A different kind of storm…

During an extended storm chase trip to the central and northern Plains, we were treated to a storm different than what we had set out for.

Under the category “timing is everything”, we happen to hit a down day with regard to severe thunderstorms, and used it to position ourselves for a possible aurora display.  Space weather had been active as several coronal mass ejections (CME) were released from solar flares directed at earth.

Everything came together and a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm occurred during the late evening hours of June 22 and early morning hours of June 23.

We took up a position 8 miles northwest of Forsyth, Montana on Highway 12.  To say this is remote is an understatement.  Light pollution was truly near zero, with the only light coming from a brilliant display of the aurora borealis.

The experience was incredible and the lights danced for us for about two hours.  The selected images here have had very little processing.  The foregrounds have been brightened, but the sky color is pretty much straight out of the camera.  This special event won’t be soon forgot.

A special thanks goes out to Vince Miller who suggested this location as a spot for very dark skies.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Chance of storms by end of week / Cooler weekend…

Models have been consistent regarding a changing weather pattern by the weekend.  A strong upper high that has brought hot weather to Oklahoma will begin to weaken over the next 48 hours, as a strong ridge takes shape over the western U.S.  A highly amplified trough will take shape over the eastern part of the country, and the result will be northwest flow over the Plains.

A cold front will be moving south across the Central Plains on Thursday.  In advance of this front, warm/hot southwest winds will be blowing across the state.  The front will move across the Panhandle early on Friday, but the day will still be quite warm across the state until the front can clear the state very early on Saturday.  Saturday and Sunday will see high temperatures a little cooler than those on Thursday and Friday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma late on Thursday.  There will be a better chance of storms statewide on Friday as the cold front moves south.  The best chance of precipitation will be across the southern half of the state, and the chance will linger into the early morning hours of Saturday.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible across the Panhandle late on Sunday.

..Hazards..

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will be possible statewide Friday afternoon and evening.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 73

Thursday: 95

Friday morning: 74

Friday: 95 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday morning: 65

Saturday: 85

Sunday morning: 68

Sunday: 91

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 40%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 2%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Warm, mostly dry weather to continue through the middle of the week…

Models are fairly consistent regarding the evolution of the weather pattern over the country through Wednesday.  For Oklahoma, this means little change as high pressure resides over the state and the main storm track continues to flow across the northern U.S.

Little or no precipitation is expected across central Oklahoma.  A weak disturbance over the Lower Mississippi Valley may result in a few showers or thunderstorms over southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain warm across the state.

..Hazards..

No significant weather hazards are expected through Wednesday.

..Okarche Weather..

Monday morning: 72

Monday: 91

Tuesday morning: 72

Tuesday: 93

Wednesday morning: 73

Wednesday: 93

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

 

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Return to summer-like conditions by the weekend…

The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill will be exiting Oklahoma on Thursday.  A strong upper ridge over the southwest U.S. will be building into the Southern Plains.  The strongest mid level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest, eastward across the Northern Plains through the weekend.

Widespread flooding rainfall will continue over eastern Oklahoma through the early hours of Friday.  There may also be thunderstorms across the Panhandle Thursday afternoon as a convective complex drives southward over the High Plains.  Otherwise, little or no precipitation is expected across the state through Sunday.

The weather story on Thursday will be the tropical system moving across eastern Oklahoma.  By the weekend, the weather story will be the return to hot weather.  Temperatures over eastern Oklahoma will be mild on Thursday and Friday, thanks to cloudiness and precipitation.  Temperatures will reach into the mid 90s across the Panhandle on Thursday, and into the upper 90s on Friday.  By Saturday and Sunday, the very warm weather will begin spreading eastward and 100 degree temperatures will be possible across northwest Oklahoma both days.

..Hazards..

Widespread flooding and flash flooding will be possible southeast of a line from Duncan to Norman to Bartlesville into the early morning hours of Friday.  River and creek flooding will continue through the weekend.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 68

Thursday: 85

Friday morning: 69

Friday: 90

Saturday morning: 71

Saturday: 94

Sunday morning: 72

Sunday: 95

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Wet weather will continue through mid-week…

A weak upper trough is located over the Central and Southern High Plains this Sunday afternoon.  The atmosphere across the state is quite moist with precipitable water values near or above 1.5 inches across the main body of the state.  Weak lifting from the trough is resulting in several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  The trough will be moving slowly across Oklahoma on Monday and showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Tuesday morning. Precipitation associated with this feature will begin to wane on Tuesday afternoon as the trough weakens and becomes diffuse.

Attention then turns to a tropical system that is currently located near the northwest side of the Yucatan Peninsula.  The National Hurricane Center says there is a high chance of development with this system, and a tropical storm may form in the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.  Tropical cyclone guidance models do not strengthen the system much more than tropical storm strength, but they are quite clustered with the forecast track.  In addition, the guidance is very similar to the latest NAM/GFS/EURO solutions.  The system is expected to make landfall along the central or southern Texas coast around Midnight on Tuesday. After landfall, it is expected to curve to the right, tracking northward through Texas and into Oklahoma by early afternoon on Wednesday.  The atmosphere will become extremely moist with precipitable water values over the eastern half of the state expected to approach 2.5 inches.  Widespread very heavy rainfall will be possible on Wednesday over Oklahoma, generally east of I-35.  Any shift westward with the track of this system and the heavy rain threat will include central Oklahoma as well.  In addition, forecast soundings on Wednesday over eastern Oklahoma show strong turning in the lowest few kilometers, which will be favorable for rotating storms and tornadoes.

..Hazards..

While no widespread flooding or severe events are expected on Monday and Tuesday, areas that see repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms may experience local flooding.  Also, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible with the heavier storms.  On Wednesday, serious flash flooding may become possible over eastern Oklahoma.  In addition, thunderstorms embedded in a larger area of rain may produce tornadoes.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 71 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Monday: 87 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday morning: 70 / Showers possible

Tuesday: 85 / Showers possible

Wednesday morning: 70 / Showers possible

Wednesday: 84 / Showers possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 60%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 10%

Updated chase logs

There are still a few weeks left of the 2015 storm chase season, and things are likely to pick up during the coming week.  For now, I’ve been trying to catch up on processing photos and updating chase logs.  Several additions have recently been added:

22 May – Colorado storms

23 May – Colorado storms

24 May – Colorado and Kansas storms

26 May – Oklahoma storms

27 May – Texas storms including several tornadoes near Canadian

The 2015 chase blog is located at:

http://www.okweatherwatch.com/StormObservation/category/2015/

May / Spring

The average temperature for the month of May in Okarche ended up at 64.3 degrees.  This was the third coolest May, coming in at 4.8 degrees below average.

The average high temperature was 73.6 degrees which set a record for the lowest average high temperature in the month of May.

For the meteorological spring, the average temperature was 58.6 degrees which was 1.3 degrees below average.

This was the third wettest spring on record.  The total precipitation of 17.82 inches was well above the average of 11.21 inches.