Cool May

While the exact number has yet to be calculated, May will end up going down as the third coolest of record in Okarche:

1. 63.9 degrees – 1954

2. 64.1 degrees – 1976

3. approximately 64.3 degrees – 2015

As of the last day of May, the temperature in Okarche hasn’t hit 90 degrees in 2015.  On seven previous occasions, the first 90 degree day didn’t show up until sometime in June:

1 – 92 -06/15/93
2 – 92 -06/10/76
3 – 90 -06/09/68
4 – 94 -06/07/79
5 – 90 -06/06/57
6 – 91 -06/05/07
7 – 90 -06/03/75

Wet May, wet Spring, but not the wettest…

Okarche didn’t see nearly the amount of rainfall that locations across central and southern Oklahoma saw during the month of May.  In fact, this wasn’t the wettest May on record.  Coming in at 238 percent of average, this month did see a respectable 12.26 inches of precipitation.  This was the third wettest month of record:

1. 15.84 inches in June, 2007

2. 12.86 inches in May, 2007

3. 12.26 inches in May, 2015

When combined with March and April, the Spring season saw 17.82 inches of precipitation.  This is well above the average of 11.21 inches.  The wettest Spring seasons:

1. 2007 – 23.30 inches

2. 1994 – 18.17 inches

3. 2015 – 17.82 inches

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Severe thunderstorms will remain possible into the weekend…

An upper trough over the western U.S. will move eastward, reaching the Plains by Saturday and possibly becoming cut off over Arkansas by the end of the weekend.  Weak upper waves will ripple out of the trough and assist in the development of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday morning.  A cold front will be moving south across the state during the early morning hours of Saturday, and Sunday should be dry as surface high pressure settles across the state.

…Hazards…

There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms over southern and western Oklahoma on Thursday.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible over the main body of the state on Friday, and into the early morning hours of Saturday.  There will also be the potential for very heavy rainfall which will result in flooding issues.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Thursday: 81 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday morning: 59 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday: 79 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday morning: 57 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 76

Sunday morning: 57

Sunday: 76

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 90%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 70%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 5%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Severe thunderstorm and flooding threats continue through Wednesday…

The jet stream will continue to reside across the Southern Plains through mid-week, but flow is expected to gradually weaken.  By Monday morning, a strong upper wave will be located over southwest Texas.  This feature will move northeastward across Texas and Oklahoma through the day.  The result will be widespread showers and thunderstorms / some producing flooding rainfall /.  The greatest risk of heavy rainfall will be across the southeast 2/3′s of the state.  In the wake of the upper system, a very moist and unstable atmosphere will be in place across the state.  Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected.  The greatest risk of heavy rainfall will increase as you go from northwest to southeast across the state.

…Hazards…
There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms statewide on Monday.  While the risk of severe weather at any one spot isn’t great, scattered cases of wind damage and tornadoes will be possible.  On Tuesday, a risk of hail and wind damage producing storms will be possible across the main body of the state.  By Wednesday, the risk is likely to be limited to the Panhandle and northwest part of the state.  Needless to say, any heavy rainfall will immediately result in flash flooding where weeks of above average rainfall have fallen.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 65

Monday: 76 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Tuesday morning: 52 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday: 73 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday morning: 56 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 79 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 90%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 80%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 30%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 10%

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Wet weather to continue / Flooding concerns increase this weekend…

A moderately strong jet will extend from Baja California to the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend.  This jet branch will begin to weaken by Sunday.
Thursday will see a low amplitude ridge over the state while another strong trough begins moving across New Mexico and southwest Texas.  This wave will move across the state on Friday.  A passing ridge late Friday and early Saturday will be replaced with strong southwest flow during the afternoon and evening as an upper low moves to near the Four Corners.  The low will open and a wave at the base of the trough will approach the Southern Plains on Sunday.

Temperatures will be seasonably cool over the next several days.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across southern Oklahoma tonight and on Thursday.  By Midnight on Friday, there will be widespread thunderstorm development occur across the Oklahoma Panhandle and west Texas.  This activity will spread across the state on Friday with very heavy rain causing concerns with flash flooding.  There will be a chance of a few severe storms / mainly across southern Oklahoma.  More widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, with the heaviest rain falling over southern and eastern parts of the state.  Precipitation will linger into Sunday with the heaviest rain over eastern Oklahoma.

…Hazards…
The biggest concerns from Friday into Sunday will be with regard to flooding and flash flooding.  Given the recent historic rainfall, and the possibility of an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain through the weekend, serious and life threatening flooding will become possible.

There will also be a low end risk of severe thunderstorms through the weekend, with the primary threat being large hail.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 48

Thursday: 65

Friday morning: 52 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Friday: 61 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Saturday morning: 57 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 68 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Sunday morning: 62 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday: 74 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 20%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…More showers and thunderstorms…

The weather will remain quite active for the next several days with the jet stream generally located from the southwest part of the U.S. and northern Mexico to the central and southern Plains.

Right off the bat, the forecast is a difficult one for Monday. A weak reinforcing shot of cool air will move southward across the central Plains and enter far northern Oklahoma by late morning.  The front will become nearly stationary from north of Tulsa to north of Elk City by afternoon.  Low level moisture is already on the increase and the atmosphere south of the front will become very unstable with afternoon heating. While global models do not indicate thunderstorm development near the front, several of the higher resolution models do – to varying degrees.  Despite the lack of large scale lifting, afternoon heating and convergence along the boundary is expected to be sufficient for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  Given the high instability that will be in place, a few of the storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds possible.  With relatively weak shear, the tornado threat is very small – but not zero.

A more active upper wave will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms from eastern Colorado to western Texas during the early morning hours of Tuesday.  These storms will progress eastward during the day and provide localized areas of heavy rainfall.

Showers and storms will persist into Wednesday, then become more numerous in the afternoon and evening as a cold front begins to move south across the state.  Once again, some storms may be severe and produce very heavy rainfall.

…Hazards…
There will be a low end risk of severe thunderstorms across the state on Monday.  Low end risks will also exist on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Storms Monday through Wednesday may generate very heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 58

Monday: 84 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday morning: 60 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Tuesday: 72 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Wednesday morning: 57 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 75 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 60%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 15%

King (2003-2015)

It is with a heavy heart that I report the passing of one of our beloved pets.  We said goodbye to King during the morning hours of May 14.

King came to us in 2010 from Sooner Golden Retriever Rescue.  And if there was ever a case of a dog needing rescue, this was it.  You could easily tell that the boy had been through some rough times.  He came to us hard of hearing, trouble seeing, and already weak legged.  Most of the hair was missing from the back half of his body from medication that regulated his thyroid.  His stay looked like it might be a short one as he repeatedly tested our patience with escape attempts.  We figured out that he had issues with abandonment and anytime we were gone, it was time to go.  Once he figured out we would return, the desire to escape went away, and he settled in nicely.  With a regulated diet and supplements, the hair came back as full as ever.  His stability improved and despite not seeing or hearing great, he got to spend a good number of healthy and happy years with us.

Over the last year, his activity gradually slowed down as atrophy in his hind quarters resulted in less and less muscle mass.  What was a slow down for many months became accelerated over this spring.  It was becoming quite the chore for him to move between his food bowl and his napping place over the last few weeks.  Over the last few days, he refused to stand and on the 13th he was showing us his first real signs of serious pain.  The decision was made quick to keep him from enduring anymore pain than he had to, and I was with him through his final moments.

Getting an animal that is already well into his adult years means that you don’t get to have them for very long.  But we wouldn’t change a thing about being able to give him some very good years to finish his life with, and we will always remember the good times he gave us.  Rest in peace, King boy.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A short wave trough responsible for showers and thunderstorms across Oklahoma over the last 24 hours will continue to move away from the state on Thursday.  An upper level low pressure area off the west coast will swing cyclonically across the Southern Rockies and into the Midwest through the weekend.

Precipitation will be coming to an end across eastern parts of the state on Thursday morning.  By late afternoon, new thunderstorm development will take place across west Texas.  This precipitation will spread across the state during the overnight hours and begin to weaken on Friday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be found across the state on Friday.  These will be most numerous across the Panhandle and western part of the state during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the main body of the state on Saturday.  By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be limited to southeast Oklahoma.

…Hazards…

Areas of heavy rain could result in flash flood issues across southern and eastern Oklahoma through the weekend.  At this time, it appears that the most significant threat will come on Saturday.

There will be a severe thunderstorm threat over the Panhandle on Thursday.  On Friday, the threat will cover the northwest 2/3′s of the state.  Saturday’s threat will be across all of the main body of the state, and there will be a chance of a severe storm over southeast Oklahoma on Sunday.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 60

Thursday: 79

Friday morning: 63  / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday: 84  / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Saturday: 75 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Sunday morning: 61

Sunday: 84

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 15%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 5%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Mesonet rainfall from May 1 to May 10, 2015

Mesonet rainfall from May 1 to May 10, 2015

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…

…Mild start to week / Storms return by Wednesday…

An upper level low pressure area is located over the Northern Plains this Sunday evening.  This feature will open and move across the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.  At the same time, a low amplitude ridge will extend from Colorado and Wyoming to Oklahoma.  The ridge will shift toward the Midwest by Wednesday morning, while a short wave trough approaches the Southern Plains from New Mexico and northern Mexico.  Lifting associated with the approaching wave will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, beginning near the Red River early Wednesday.  The precipitation will spread northeastward across the state through Wednesday night, with some heavy rainfall possible.  The severe weather threat will be limited due to weak instability, but a couple of storms producing some hail will not be out of the question.

Temperatures will be seasonably cool across the state through mid-week.  This in part by the strength of the surface high which will settle southeastward toward the Ozarks by Tuesday, and in part by clouds and precipitation on Wednesday.

…Hazards…
The map above shows Mesonet precipitation that has fallen across the state over the first ten days of the month.  Amounts over the southeast two thirds of the state have been staggering, with several spots averaging more than an inch of rain a day.  Widespread one inch rainfall will be possible Wednesday, with some places seeing as much as three inches.  Flash flooding will once again be possible.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 44

Monday: 70

Tuesday morning: 45

Tuesday: 72

Wednesday morning: 54 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 90%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 60%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 25%

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Showers and thunderstorms / with some severe weather / likely through weekend…

…Hazards…

Severe thunderstorms / with all facets of severe weather / will be possible statewide Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  On Sunday, severe weather should be confined to the southeast 1/2 of the state.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 63 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Thursday: 76 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Friday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday: 78 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Saturday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 76 / Showers and thunderstorms likely

Sunday morning: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday: 80 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 25%