…More showers and thunderstorms…
The weather will remain quite active for the next several days with the jet stream generally located from the southwest part of the U.S. and northern Mexico to the central and southern Plains.
Right off the bat, the forecast is a difficult one for Monday. A weak reinforcing shot of cool air will move southward across the central Plains and enter far northern Oklahoma by late morning. The front will become nearly stationary from north of Tulsa to north of Elk City by afternoon. Low level moisture is already on the increase and the atmosphere south of the front will become very unstable with afternoon heating. While global models do not indicate thunderstorm development near the front, several of the higher resolution models do – to varying degrees. Despite the lack of large scale lifting, afternoon heating and convergence along the boundary is expected to be sufficient for scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Given the high instability that will be in place, a few of the storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. With relatively weak shear, the tornado threat is very small – but not zero.
A more active upper wave will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms from eastern Colorado to western Texas during the early morning hours of Tuesday. These storms will progress eastward during the day and provide localized areas of heavy rainfall.
Showers and storms will persist into Wednesday, then become more numerous in the afternoon and evening as a cold front begins to move south across the state. Once again, some storms may be severe and produce very heavy rainfall.
There will be a low end risk of severe thunderstorms across the state on Monday. Low end risks will also exist on Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms Monday through Wednesday may generate very heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible.
Monday morning: 58
Monday: 84 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Tuesday morning: 60 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Tuesday: 72 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
Wednesday morning: 57 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Wednesday: 75 / Showers and thunderstorms likely
…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…
CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%
CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 100%
CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 100%
CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 100%
CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 60%
CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 15%