Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Strong cold front passes on Friday / Precipitation chances increase over the weekend…

The weather will remain quite active through the weekend.  A strong upper wave will be moving across the Central Plains late Thursday and early Friday.  Another weaker wave will pass across the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday.

A weak front will be pushing eastward overnight, extending from near Ponca City to Lawton by Thursday morning.  The boundary will become nearly stationary by afternoon, and somewhat diffuse near the I-35 corridor as pressure falls occur over the High Plains.  Thunderstorms will be possible in the moist plume across eastern Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Given the degree of instability and deep layer shear, some of the storms will become severe.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat, but forecast wind profiles also support a chance of supercell storms and at least a low end tornado risk.

During the early morning hours of Friday, a strong cold front will begin moving quickly southeastward across the state.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front over northeast Oklahoma, but strong capping elsewhere should limit precipitation chances.  In the wake of the frontal passage, strong north winds will occur through the early afternoon hours.

Saturday will start cool, but it will be a mild day with light winds and mostly sunny skies.  However, winds will begin to increase out of the south across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma.

South winds and moisture will increase across the state early on Sunday.  Lifting from the passing short wave trough will result in showers and thunderstorms across the southeast 2/3s of the state.  It does not appear that there will be sufficient instability to support much of a severe threat with this activity.

…Hazards…

Fire danger will be very high over the Panhandle on Thursday – across the Panhandle and northwest part of the state on Saturday – and across the Panhandle on Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern half of Oklahoma on Thursday.

Winds will be gusting out of the north between 40 and 50 mph during the morning hours of Friday.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 60

Thursday: 81

Friday morning: 51
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Friday: 59

Saturday morning: 33

Saturday: 66

Sunday morning: 48 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday: 64 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 30%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 15%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 2%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

* Updated at 10:31 am on April 3rd to slightly reduce precipitation chances on Sunday – and to lower temperatures for Friday and Saturday morning.