…Warm with some thunderstorm chances through Wednesday…
An upper level low west of Baja California will open up and moved eastward, reaching the Southern Plains late Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will move eastward toward the Northern and Central Plains. As this occurs, there will be an increase in mid-level flow over Oklahoma.
Dry air and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s from north central to southwest Oklahoma by Monday morning.
A weak surface boundary over north Texas will be washing out on Monday, and there will be a big increase in low level moisture over the southern half of the state as south winds increase. The lack of lifting mechanisms will limit precipitation potential on Monday, but a few light showers will be possible over southeast sections of the state, Monday night.
A weak surface front will slip southward across northwest and north central Oklahoma early on Tuesday. The boundary is expected to become nearly stationary by early afternoon as low pressure organizes over the Texas Panhandle. The atmosphere across the state will be moist and quite unstable by Tuesday afternoon. All models signal shower and thunderstorm chances from late afternoon through Wednesday morning. The NAM family solutions favor southwest Oklahoma for the most significant storms, while the GFS keeps the greatest potential over the eastern 2/3′s of the state. The result is likely to be a combination of both, with most of the state having at least a chance of storms. Flow at all levels will be fairly weak, but forecast soundings do show turning with height. The atmosphere will be quite unstable, and afternoon and evening storms will have the potential to become severe with large hail the primary threat.
By Wednesday, low pressure will deepen over western Kansas. There will be a dryline extending southward from the low along the Texas/Oklahoma border. Winds over the main body of the state will be gusty out of the south and it will be warm and moist. Once again, the atmosphere will become very unstable. While there will be strong capping over the dryline most of the day, strong afternoon heating, convergence and subtle lifting from the passing shortwave trough may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development over western Oklahoma. Should storms form and become established, they would likely be supercell in nature with all facets of severe weather possible.
Dry air and gusty winds will result in very high fire danger across far western Oklahoma and the Panhandle on Wednesday.
There will be low chances of severe thunderstorms across the southern half of Oklahoma on Tuesday, and across the western half of the state on Wednesday.
Monday morning: 38
Tuesday morning: 54
Tuesday: 81 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Wednesday morning: 59 / Showers and thunderstorms possible
Wednesday: 85 / Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
…PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…
CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 90%
CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 70%
CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 40%
CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 15%
CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%
CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%