Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Warm with some thunderstorm chances through Wednesday…

An upper level low west of Baja California will open up and moved eastward, reaching the Southern Plains late Tuesday and Wednesday.  Meanwhile, an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will move eastward toward the Northern and Central Plains.  As this occurs, there will be an increase in mid-level flow over Oklahoma.

Dry air and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s from north central to southwest Oklahoma by Monday morning.

A weak surface boundary over north Texas will be washing out on Monday, and there will be a big increase in low level moisture over the southern half of the state as south winds increase.  The lack of lifting mechanisms will limit precipitation potential on Monday, but a few light showers will be possible over southeast sections of the state, Monday night.

A weak surface front will slip southward across northwest and north central Oklahoma early on Tuesday.  The boundary is expected to become nearly stationary by early afternoon as low pressure organizes over the Texas Panhandle.  The atmosphere across the state will be moist and quite unstable by Tuesday afternoon.  All models signal shower and thunderstorm chances from late afternoon through Wednesday morning.  The NAM family solutions favor southwest Oklahoma for the most significant storms, while the GFS keeps the greatest potential over the eastern 2/3′s of the state.  The result is likely to be a combination of both, with most of the state having at least a chance of storms.  Flow at all levels will be fairly weak, but forecast soundings do show turning with height.  The atmosphere will be quite unstable, and afternoon and evening storms will have the potential to become severe with large hail the primary threat.

By Wednesday, low pressure will deepen over western Kansas.  There will be a dryline extending southward from the low along the Texas/Oklahoma border.  Winds over the main body of the state will be gusty out of the south and it will be warm and moist.  Once again, the atmosphere will become very unstable.  While there will be strong capping over the dryline most of the day, strong afternoon heating, convergence and subtle lifting from the passing shortwave trough may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development over western Oklahoma.  Should storms form and become established, they would likely be supercell in nature with all facets of severe weather possible.

…Hazards…

Dry air and gusty winds will result in very high fire danger across far western Oklahoma and the Panhandle on Wednesday.

There will be low chances of severe thunderstorms across the southern half of Oklahoma on Tuesday, and across the western half of the state on Wednesday.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 38

Monday: 78

Tuesday morning: 54

Tuesday: 81 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday morning: 59 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Wednesday: 85 / Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 90%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 70%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 40%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 15%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Cool mornings for a couple of days / Warmer weekend…

A long wave trough over the central part of the U.S. will amplify as it moves toward the east coast.  A ridge over the western part of the country will flatten some as it tries to build toward the Plains by Saturday.  Models diverge a little with the evolution of the next wave over the Southwest U.S… but keep it west of the Southern Plains through Sunday.

It will be a cool morning across Oklahoma on Thursday, but winds will die down quickly as the surface pressure gradient loosens.  Friday will see another cool morning, but temperatures will begin to rebound as pressures fall over the High Plains and winds begin to return from the southwest.

A couple of surface troughs will result in wind shifts over the weekend, but temperatures will be mild.

No precipitation is expected through Sunday.

…Hazards…

No weather related hazards are expected through the weekend.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 39

Thursday: 60

Friday morning: 40

Friday: 57

Saturday morning: 45

Saturday: 79

Sunday morning: 49

Sunday: 79

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

…SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 1 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 5 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 7 INCHES – 0%

Wild weather day for Oklahoma on Wednesday

As a strong storm system moves across the Plains on Wednesday, there will be a wide range of active weather occur across the state.

By mid afternoon, a moist and very unstable atmosphere will set the stage for vigorous thunderstorm development from west and southwest of the OKC area into northeast Oklahoma.  Large hail and damaging winds are likely, and a tornado or two will also be possible.

Southwest winds behind a dryline will result in very warm temperatures and high fire danger across southwest Oklahoma.

As a cold front surges southward across the state through the evening hours, very strong north winds will develop behind it.  Most of the state can expect winds to gust over 40 mph, but western Oklahoma stands a chance of seeing 60 mph wind gusts.  The strong winds will persist through Thursday morning.

People living across the eastern 2/3s of the state should stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions and listen for watch and warning information.  Those in southwest Oklahoma should take precautions to prevent the start and spread of wildfires.  Across central and western Oklahoma, people should secure loose objects in preparation for strong and possibly damaging wind gusts through the evening and overnight hours.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Active weather across the state through mid-week…

An upper trough near the California and Oregon coasts will move quickly eastward – sharpening as it passes across the Central Plains on Tuesday.  This feature will be lifting northeast across the Great Lakes on Wednesday – as another strong trough dives southeastward from the Northern and Central Rockies.

Monday will be a mild day across Oklahoma as south winds increase in response to organizing low pressure over the High Plains.  A dryline will be located near the western border of Oklahoma.  Strong capping will suppress organized thunderstorm development along the dryline.  However, the chance of a storm is non-zero.  By late afternoon, surface heating, convergence along the dryline, and weak lift from a lead short wave trough may be sufficient to allow the development of one or two storms over northwest Oklahoma.  Given modest amounts of shear and instability, any activity that does form would have the chance to become severe.

As the stronger wave moves across the Plains on Tuesday, the surface dryline/weak cold front will push eastward and extend from near Tulsa to near Ardmore by afternoon.  This boundary will be a focus for thunderstorm development.  An increase in moisture will aid in stronger instability developing, and some of the storms becoming severe.

Early Wednesday, moisture will surge back to the northwest / to the west of I-35 / as the strong wave over the Rockies approaches the Plains.  By early afternoon, a cold front will begin to move quickly southeast across the state.  Forcing along the front will result in numerous showers and thunderstorms forming across northeast and central Oklahoma.  A dryline/cold front intersection over southwest Oklahoma may result in an enhanced risk of severe storms with activity that forms southwest of the OKC metro area.

…Hazards…

Fire danger will become elevated over far western Oklahoma and the Panhandle on Monday.  Fire danger will become very high or extreme across the northwest half of the state on Tuesday.

A very low end risk of severe storms exists across northwest Oklahoma on Monday.  More severe thunderstorms will be possible over eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday.  A greater risk of severe thunderstorms will exist across the southeast 2/3s of the state on Wednesday.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 49

Monday: 78

Tuesday morning: 54

Tuesday: 78

Wednesday morning: 52

Wednesday: 75 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 2%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

…SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 1 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 5 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 7 INCHES – 0%

Non-precipitation radar echoes

There was a strong inversion in place across the northwest half of Oklahoma on Saturday morning – 21st.  Radar ducting was occurring, and there were a considerable amount of non-precipitation echoes being detected by the KTLX radar.  Besides the typical traffic on highways and wind farms, 60+ dbz returns were produced by a train on the BNSF line in Covington – as well as a train on the Union Pacific line in Okarche.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Mild temperatures / Precipitation chances through the weekend…

An upper wave that produced precipitation in Oklahoma on Wednesday is moving eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  A strong trough is moving eastward across the Northern Rockies.  This feature is loosely phased with an upper low located over the northern part of Baja California.  The Northern Rockies trough will move quickly east toward the Great Lakes over the next 36 hours.  Meanwhile, the Baja low will open and move slowly eastward toward the Southern Plains.  A stretched area of vorticity will be providing lift for showers and thunderstorms across Oklahoma on Thursday and early Friday.  More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the end of the weekend as the Baja system finally moves across the Southern Plains.

A weak cold front will slip southward across Oklahoma through Thursday afternoon.  This front will become nearly stationary along the Red River as low pressure organizes over western Texas.  By afternoon, very warm temperatures will be found near and just south of the Red River.  An increase in moisture will result in the atmosphere becoming marginally unstable with MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 j/kg expected.  From daybreak until early afternoon, showers and the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.  This activity will move eastward across western and central Oklahoma during the day.  By late afternoon, more vigorous thunderstorm development is expected over southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas.  There will be adequate shear and instability to support a risk of severe thunderstorms – especially along the Red River.  The primary threat will be hail, with very low end risks of damaging winds or a tornado.  Showers and storms will continue across south central and southeast Oklahoma through the morning hours of Friday.

Light precipitation will be possible through the day on Friday across southern Oklahoma.  Temperatures on Friday will be slightly below normal across the southern part of the state where clouds and light precipitation are possible.  Temperatures closer to normal will be found across the northwestern part of Oklahoma.

Saturday will see temperatures across the western half of the state climb above 70 degrees.  South winds will be increasing some as a surface trough takes shape over the High Plains.  With precipitable water values ranging from 0.8 to over 1.2 inches, an isolated shower or storm will be possible.  However, the chance at rainfall in any one place will only be about 10 percent.

On Sunday, a dryline will be located near the western border of Oklahoma, and a weak front will be moving southward across Kansas.  Temperatures will warm well above normal in most areas and moisture will remain seasonably high.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with the chance of a few strong storms.

…Hazards…

There will be a low end risk of severe thunderstorms over southwest and south central Oklahoma on Thursday.  More isolated, but strong storms will be possible over western and northern Oklahoma on Sunday.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 45 / Showers possible

Thursday: 54 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Friday morning: 39 / Showers possible

Friday: 62

Saturday morning: 47

Saturday: 72

Sunday morning: 54

Sunday: 76

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

…SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 1 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 5 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 7 INCHES – 0%

Will it freeze again this season?

If history is any indication, yes.  For those of us anxious to get started on garden and yard projects, we are at the time of year when we look at the temperature forecast in every model run.  Right now, no arctic air / and thus, no freezing temperatures / is showing up through March 26th.  The only problem is that over the last 79 years, the last freeze has occurred later than March 26th – 81 percent of the time.  The average last freeze in Okarche is April 6th.  Last year, the last freeze occurred on April 15th, a full month later than where we are right now.  The record last freeze occurred on May 3rd – in 1954 and 2013.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

…Warm Monday / Cooler with precipitation late Tuesday and Wednesday…

On Monday, a strong upper wave will be moving southeastward across Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.  This wave will get colder air moving southward across the Plains to start the week.  Meanwhile, an upper low near the southern tip of Baja California will be moving northeastward and opening up over the Southern Plains.  This feature will generate widespread precipitation.

On Monday, surface low pressure will be organizing over the Central Plains.  Warm and dry air will be spreading across Oklahoma on gusty southwest winds.  By daybreak on Tuesday, a cold front will be pushing across central Oklahoma.  While the air is not arctic in nature, it will be considerably cooler behind the front.  The front will begin to slow and may have a hard time getting out of Oklahoma.  By Tuesday afternoon, widespread showers and thunderstorms will be forming across Texas.  This precipitation will steadily spread northeastward into Oklahoma during the overnight hours from Tuesday into Wednesday.  The heaviest rainfall will likely be confined to the southeast half of the state, but measurable rainfall will be seen in all areas except the Panhandle.  Thunder will be heard southeast of an Ardmore to Fort Smith line.  Precipitation will be ending across far eastern Oklahoma by late on Wednesday.

…Hazards…

A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Monday over northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle.  Warm and gusty southwest winds, dry air and dormant vegetation will lead to elevated to extreme fire weather conditions across the northwest half of the state.

…Okarche Weather…

Monday morning: 47

Monday: 82

Tuesday morning: 51

Tuesday: 60 / Rain possible

Wednesday morning: 45 / Rain likely

Wednesday: 59 / Rain possible

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 90%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

…SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

CHANCE OF 1 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 5 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 7 INCHES – 0%

Fire danger high on Monday

Surface low pressure will be organizing over the Central Plains on Monday.  The result will be increased southwest winds and warm temperatures across the state.  Both the NAM and GFS have not handled moisture very well of late, forecasting greater than observed humidity.  Humidity is expected to drop below / or well below / 20 percent across much of northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle on Monday.  Dormant vegetation, low humidity, warm temperatures and gusty winds will result in fire danger becoming very high to extreme.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

…Showers likely on Friday…

An upper level low is located over Oklahoma this Wednesday evening.  This low will drift southwestward through the weekend, while vorticity maxima east of the low work northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  In general, there are no significant differences between model solutions.

Surface low pressure will be located near the Louisiana/Texas border near the Gulf Coast, Thursday afternoon.  Moisture streaming northward near and ahead of this low will be spreading showers into southeast Oklahoma.  The low will be near Shreveport by Friday morning.  While the heaviest precipitation will be east of the center, widespread showers will still be occurring over eastern Oklahoma.  Global models keep most of the showers east of I-35, but higher resolution models indicate that precipitation will fall as far west as Lawton and El Reno.  At this point, I am inclined to side with the higher resolution solutions given their recent performance.

The low will be moving away from Oklahoma by Saturday morning, and precipitation will be coming to an end.

It will be mild across the state on Thursday, except across southeast Oklahoma where extensive clouds and precipitation hold the temperatures down.  This will also be the case on Friday, but the cooler weather will cover more of central and eastern Oklahoma.

Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be near or slightly above average, with the coolest weather over eastern Oklahoma and the warmest over the Panhandle.

…Hazards…

No significant weather related hazards expected.

…Okarche Weather…

Thursday morning: 42

Thursday: 70

Friday morning: 42

Friday: 65 / Showers possible

Saturday morning: 43

Saturday: 65

Sunday morning: 38

Sunday: 71

…PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY…

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 30%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

…SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY…

CHANCE OF 1 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 5 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 7 INCHES – 0%