Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Arctic air is beginning to pour southward this Sunday evening, with temperatures as cold as 15 degrees below zero in the Dakotas.  A mid level shortwave trough will be moving east across the central part of the U.S. on Monday.  Meanwhile, a strong wave will be dropping south across the Canadian Prairies.  As these waves track east and south, arctic air will continue to spread southward.  The leading edge of very cold air will begin to move across Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon on Monday.  Tuesday will be an uncomfortable day with brisk north winds and temperatures that won’t get above freezing across the northwest half of the state.  Wednesday morning will see temperatures in the single digits over the Panhandle.  Temperatures across Central Oklahoma will struggle to get above freezing during the afternoon.

Light snow is expected to develop over the Panhandle late on Monday.  Scattered areas of light snow are likely to continue through Tuesday and into early Wednesday across the western half of the state.  Snowfall amounts are not expected to exceed one inch across Central Oklahoma, and not expected to exceed two inches over the far west and Panhandle.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 25

Monday: 42

Tuesday morning: 21

Tuesday: 31

Wednesday morning: 12

Wednesday: 26

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

CHANCE OF 1 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 5 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 7 INCHES – 0%

December 27, 2014 Snowfall

A band of snowfall stretched from Southwest Oklahoma northeastward into the OKC and Tulsa metro areas.  In some areas, the snow became heavy with 4 to 6 inch accumulations noted in Comanche, Caddo and Grady counties.  The highest snowfall total was 6.8 inches near Cyril, Oklahoma.

Light snow possible through Saturday afternoon

A deep long wave trough extends from the Northern Plains to the Southwest U.S. this Friday evening.  A strong vort max over northern sections of New Mexico will be lifting northeastward over the next 12 hours.  Meanwhile, a weaker wave will be ejecting out of the base of the trough, with weak lifting spreading over Oklahoma overnight.

A cold front has now pushed past the Oklahoma City area with colder air filtering in on north winds.  Temperatures over Northwest Oklahoma have dropped below freezing.  Precipitation is currently developing from Northwest Oklahoma to West Texas in advance of the approaching wave.  This light precipitation will likely become snow as the atmosphere continues to cool.  While no significant amounts are expected, it does appear that overnight snow may result in a dusting to as much as 1/2 inch from Southwest Oklahoma to the central sections of the state.  From Saturday morning to afternoon, an additional 1+ inch of snow may fall from near Lawton to Norman.  A few travel issues may develop where snowfall is heaviest.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

The weather pattern will remain active through the weekend, with numerous strong upper waves pushing across the country.  There will be frequent changes in the weather, but little in the way of precipitation as moisture remains limited.

Thursday:  Surface low pressure will rapidly deepen during the morning hours over Southeast Colorado.  A strong pressure gradient across Oklahoma will result in very strong southwest winds, some of which could gust to 50 mph.  With low humidity over the western part of the state, fire danger will become elevated to high.  Temperatures will be seasonably mild.

Friday:  A cold front will be pushing southeastward across Northwest Oklahoma during the early morning hours.  This front is expected to reach Central Oklahoma around Noon.  Some light showers will be possible along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Late Friday, some light snow will be possible across the northwest part of the state, but no significant accumulations are expected.  Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front, but it will be sharply colder behind it with freezing temperatures reaching Central Oklahoma by Saturday morning.

Saturday:  The cold front will be exiting Southeast Oklahoma by late morning, where a few showers will still be possible.  It will be a cold day across the remainder of the state with gusty north winds creating uncomfortable wind chill.

Sunday:  Temperatures will start out cold, but some modification will occur across the southern half of the state as winds return to the south.  By Midnight, the next cold front to cross Oklahoma will be passing over the Panhandle.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 33

Thursday: 54

Friday morning: 42

Friday: 55 / Light showers possible

Saturday morning: 31 / Light showers or snow possible

Saturday: 39

Sunday morning: 24

Sunday: 45

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

SNOWFALL CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY:

CHANCE OF 1 INCH – 50%

CHANCE OF 3 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 5 INCHES – 0%

CHANCE OF 7 INCHES – 0%

CHRISTMAS WEATHER

In Okarche on Christmas:

Highest High Temperature - 74 degrees in 1950

2014 High Temperature – 58 degrees

Average High Temperature – 48.3 degrees

Lowest High Temperature -  13 degrees in 1983

Lowest Low Temperature – Minus 3 degrees in 1983

Average Low Temperature – 26.0 degrees

2014 Low Temperature - 33 degrees

Highest Low Temperature – 50 degrees in 1936

Precipitation has fallen on 12 percent of past Christmas days.

2014 Precipitation – 0.00

Greatest Precipitation – 0.10 in 2000

Snow has fallen on 14 percent of past Christmas days.

2014 Snowfall – 0.0

Greatest Snowfall – 1.0 in 2012

White Christmas (1 inch of snow on the ground) – 9 percent of past Christmas days.

 

5 year look at rainfall

It is looking like 2014 will be the 2nd driest year of record in Okarche.  This following 2013 that was the 2nd wettest of record.  Looking at recent previous years: 2012 (driest of record), 2011 (6th driest of record), 2010 (4th driest of record).  Putting the last five years together, Okarche is 30 1/2 inches below where we should be – or nearly one full year worth of precipitation!  A year ago, it appeared that the drought was over, but it’s clear that the long term drought is still hanging tough.

Windy, fire danger on Christmas Day

Surface high pressure will shift east of the Mississippi Valley on Christmas day, while low pressure deepens over the Southern and Central High Plains.  A tight pressure gradient will develop over Oklahoma and winds will become quite gusty out of the southwest.   Temperatures will warm nicely across the state, but the atmosphere will be dry with humidity dropping below 30 percent over Western Oklahoma.

The combined wind and low humidity will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across the western half of the state, with high fire danger expected for a few hours over Northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle.

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Models are in reasonably good agreement with the unfolding active and complex weather pattern.  A broad trough is located over the Plains this Sunday evening.  There is a very strong mid level jet extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Southern Rockies.  As this strong flow rounds the base of the trough, a closed circulation is expected to form near the South Dakota/Nebraska border by Monday afternoon.  The ejecting wind max will result in a reformation of the upper low closer to the Iowa/Illinois border by Tuesday morning.  Meanwhile, very strong flow will be diving southward across the Great Basin, resulting in a sharp trough developing over the Southern Plains by Tuesday evening.  A closed low will eventually form just east of Oklahoma on Wednesday, and move quickly away from the state.

While there will be some chances of precipitation over the next few days, limited moisture will keep amounts on the low side.

A weak cold front will move eastward across Oklahoma tonight and Monday morning.  A few showers will be possible  Monday morning and afternoon.  Light rain will begin to develop just west of Oklahoma by Monday evening.  This precipitation will move/develop southeastward across the Red River Valley through Tuesday afternoon.  A reinforcing surge of colder air will be filtering into the state by sunset on Tuesday.  As this occurs, light precipitation will be dropping southward across Kansas.  Some light snow is possible across the northern half of the state through Wednesday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 44 / Light rain possible

Monday: 55

Tuesday morning: 40

Tuesday: 46

Wednesday morning: 29 / Light snow possible

Wednesday: 39

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 80%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

Fog and drizzle will continue across Oklahoma for much of Thursday, Friday and early Saturday.

A strong short wave trough is moving across Oklahoma this Wednesday.  This wave has been responsible for widespread precipitation / mostly on the light side, but with some areas of moderate rainfall and rumbles of thunder. This wave is quickly exiting the Southern Plains, but another wave will be moving across Texas on Friday.  While the main area of lift and significant precipitation with this wave will be confined to Texas and Louisiana, some light rain will be possible over Southeast Oklahoma.  Dry conditions are expected over the weekend.

A weak front will begin moving southward across Oklahoma from late tonight into early Thursday.  Seasonably cool temperatures will filter into the state Thursday and Friday.  As the air mass modifies, slightly warmer temperatures will be found across Oklahoma on Saturday and Sunday.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 37 / Fog and drizzle

Thursday: 43 / Fog and drizzle

Friday morning: 34 / Fog and drizzle

Friday: 43 / Fog and drizzle

Saturday morning: 32

Saturday: 47

Sunday morning: 33

Sunday: 52

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 100%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 60%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

The powerful storm system that brought severe thunderstorms to Oklahoma on Sunday will be moving quickly away from the state, while short wave ridging builds over the Plains through Tuesday.  By Wednesday morning, the ridge will begin to flatten as a short wave trough approaches the Southern Plains from the Southern Rockies.  This open wave won’t be very strong, but should provide some lifting for precipitation.

A cold front will be clearing the state during the morning hours of Monday.  Cooler air will filter into Oklahoma as high pressure settles over the region.  The ridge axis will be shifting east of Oklahoma by Wednesday and winds will return from the south.  Despite this, a significant warm-up is not expected as recycled polar air will be flowing over the state.  The exception may be near the western Oklahoma border where stronger south winds will allow temperatures to climb into the high 50′s.

With increasing lift, showers are expected to develop over the southeast half of the state during the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday.  No significant rainfall amounts are expected.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 39

Monday: 52

Tuesday morning: 31

Tuesday: 46

Wednesday morning: 30

Wednesday: 46 / Showers possible

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 90%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 40%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 10%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%