Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

Not a lot of model difference this evening.  A strong trough is lifting northeast across the Great Lakes.  Another strong wave will be moving eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains over the next couple of days.  Weak waves in the southern branch flow will push toward/across the Southern Plains, but limited moisture and lift will keep any precipitation on the light side.

An arctic cold front has passed through all but Southeast Oklahoma this Sunday evening.  By daybreak on Monday, the entire state will be under the grip of arctic air.  There may be some light rain/drizzle over east central and southeast sections of the state Monday morning.  Some of this may fall as freezing rain/drizzle, but no significant accumulations are expected.

Tuesday will be a cold day across Oklahoma, but the air mass will try to modify some as winds become southerly.  At this point, it seems hard to believe that much modification can be accomplished given the strength of this cold air mass.

Any warming on Tuesday will come to an end on Wednesday as surface pressures fall over Texas.  This will allow for winds to become northeasterly once again and cold air to filter back into the state.

There will be a chance at light rain/drizzle across much of the state on Wednesday, but forecast soundings show temperatures too warm for freezing or frozen precipitation.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 21

Monday: 34

Tuesday morning: 23

Tuesday: 43

Wednesday morning: 32

Wednesday: 47 / Slight chance of rain

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 20%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Arctic air ahead of schedule

The latest weather maps show that the arctic front moving south across the Plains is doing so a little quicker than expected.  At its current rate of travel, it will be reaching the Okarche area a little before Noon.  Unfortunately, that means there will be very little nice weather today.  Temperatures will fall quickly behind the front and winds will become gusty out of the north.  A hard freeze is expected by Monday morning.

Thanksgiving Weather

In Okarche on Thanksgiving:

Highest High Temperature – 80 degrees in 1970

Average High Temperature – 56.6 degrees

2014 High Temperature – 52 degrees

Lowest High Temperature – 25 degrees in 1993

Lowest Low Temperature – 14 degrees in 1938

2014 Low Temperature – 25 degrees

Average Low Temperature – 33.1 degrees

Highest Low Temperature – 60 degrees in 1966

Precipitation has fallen on 18 percent of past Thanksgiving days.

2014 Precipitation – 0.00

Greatest Precipitation – 0.24 in 2000

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A trough over the Eastern U.S. will lift northeast over the next couple of days and be moving away from New England by late Friday.  Initially, a ridge over the Western U.S. will be holding firm, but will begin to flatten early Saturday as a strong trough drops southeast across the Pacific Northwest, and another trough approaches California from the west.  The Pacific Northwest trough will be reinforced by a strong jet segment moving southeast across the Canadian Prairies, and the trough will be moving east northeast toward Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes.  Near the base of this trough, west southwest flow will be found across the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday.

Cool high pressure will be located across Oklahoma Thursday morning.  By afternoon, there will be strong pressure falls over the High Plains, and winds will become southerly.  It will end up being quite windy across the Panhandle and western portion of Oklahoma.  Winds will remain out of the southwest across the state on Friday, but speeds will not be excessive.

Temperatures will be above normal on Saturday when there will be a wide swath of southwest low level flow blowing from the Southern High Plains to the Southern Great Lakes.

Arctic air will begin moving south across the Plains on Sunday.  Models have come into good agreement with the timing of the front, reaching the Kansas/Oklahoma border around Noon.  Early day above average temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front and winds will become quite gusty out of the north.  The front will be reaching the Red River by sunset.  There have been some model signals of a few light showers over Eastern Oklahoma late in the day, but significant precipitation is not expected.  Temperatures will fall below freezing by Midnight, and wind chill temperatures will be in the teens.  A hard freeze will occur by Monday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 29

Thursday: 54

Friday morning: 34

Friday: 66

Saturday morning: 42

Saturday: 70

Sunday morning: 43

Sunday: 62

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Outlook (Monday-Wednesday)

A deep, broad trough over the Central U.S. will shift eastward over the next couple of days.  A high pressure ridge will build into the Southwest U.S. by mid week and northwest flow will be found across the Plains.

In the wake of a strong cold front which crossed Oklahoma on Sunday, it will be cool across the state Monday morning.  By afternoon, it will become mild with generally light west winds.  Tuesday will also start cool and become mild as winds become southwesterly in advance of another cold front.  A weak cold front will push across the state early on Wednesday, but the air behind the front is not arctic in nature and won’t be unseasonably cold.

It will remain dry across the state with no precipitation chances through Wednesday.

Okarche Weather:

Monday morning: 34

Monday: 60

Tuesday morning: 31

Tuesday: 60

Wednesday morning: 36

Wednesday: 60

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

Strong winds expected across the state (November 23, 2014)

The barometer keeps falling across the main body of Oklahoma this morning, as a surface cyclone organizes near the Kansas/Oklahoma border northwest of Alva.  The deep low pressure area will move across Northern Oklahoma through this afternoon and will be located near the northeast corner of the state around 3 pm.  As this low tracks across Oklahoma, it will drag a cold front through the state.  Rapid pressure rises behind the front/increasing pressure gradient will result in strong and gusty northwest winds.  The strongest winds will be across Western Oklahoma where gusts may approach 50 mph.  The cold front will be passing across far northwest sections of the state by 9 am this morning.  It is expected in the Okarche area around 2 pm.  Winds will quickly start to subside around sunset.

Outlook (Thursday-Sunday)

A deep, broad trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be lifting northeast over the next 24 hours.  A low amplitude ridge which extends from Southern British Columbia to the Southern Rockies will flatten and shift east across the Plains.  The next weather maker for Oklahoma is a very strong short wave trough currently located about 700 miles west of the Northern California coast.  This system will make quick and steady southeastward progress, reaching Northern Sonora by Friday evening.  As a strong / 80 knot / mid level jet segment rotates around the base of the trough Saturday afternoon, the wave will begin to lift northeastward across Texas.  By Sunday morning, the wave will be moving across the Central and Southern Mississippi Valley.

Through Thursday morning, a cool and dry air mass will be found across Oklahoma.  As low pressure begins to develop over the Southern High Plains, a warm front will move northward into Southern Oklahoma.  The front will make it to near the Kansas border by Friday afternoon.  Low pressure will move across the state late Saturday into Sunday morning.  As the surface cyclone lifts quickly toward the Great Lakes on Sunday, winds will become northwesterly across the state.  While the air will become cooler as this occurs, unseasonably cold air is not expected.

Low level moisture will begin to rapidly increase across the state Friday morning.  An unseasonably moist air mass will be found across Southern and Eastern Oklahoma on Saturday and Sunday, when precipitable water values will approach 1.5 inches.

As moisture increases, a few light showers will be possible across Central and Eastern Oklahoma as early as Friday morning.  As lift increases with the approach of the short wave trough, thunderstorms will form and become widespread across most all of Oklahoma except for the northwest and panhandle.  Saturday will be a very wet day across the southeastern two-thirds of the state as strong lifting and a steady increase in moisture will lead to widespread / possibly heavy rain producing / showers and thunderstorms.  Precipitation will begin to end from west to east Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Okarche Weather:

Thursday morning: 33

Thursday: 56

Friday morning: 43

Friday: 63

Saturday morning: 42 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Saturday: 53 / Showers and thunderstorms possible

Sunday morning: 47

Sunday: 60

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY:

CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH – 80%

CHANCE OF 0.10 INCH – 30%

CHANCE OF 0.50 INCH – 5%

CHANCE OF 1.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 2.00 INCH – 0%

CHANCE OF 3.00 INCH – 0%

November 16, 2014 snow

While we still wait for snowfall totals to come in, satellite imagery this morning showed something interesting.  It appears that the entire state saw accumulating snowfall.  That is a little unusual even for some of the strongest winter storms that we see here in the Southern Plains.  On the satellite image above (taken just after sunrise this morning) everything white is snow on the ground.  Some places over Eastern Oklahoma don’t appear to have much snow, but snow cover is often slightly hidden by areas of forest.